Polar bear: non-detriment finding report

CITES Scientific Authority
Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment and Climate Change Canada

Updated 2024-03-28

Supporting information used when making an Ursus maritimus (Polar Bear) Non-Detriment Finding (NDF) for Canada

Introduction

Canada is a Party to the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), a legally binding international treaty to prevent species from becoming endangered or extinct because of international trade. CITES regulates the trade of animal and plant species listed on its appendices using a system of permits and certificates to ensure that this trade is not detrimental to the survival of wild populations. Any international trade in plant and animal species protected by CITES should be both legal and sustainable. A primary obligation of Canada is to ensure that export of specimens from a CITES-listed species is conducted in accordance with the controls stipulated by the Convention.

Polar bear is listed on Appendix II of CITES, requiring a CITES export permit (as per requirements under Article IV of the Convention) in order to enter into international trade. CITES export permits can be issued only upon advice from the country’s CITES Scientific Authority that the trade will not be detrimental to the survival of the species (known as a non-detriment finding or NDF). NDFs are determined on a permit-by-permit basis. For more commonly exported Canadian species, such as polar bear, Canada has prepared reports such as this one, to document the background and considerations of the Scientific Authority when making the NDF for export permit applications. While this NDF Report provides an overall assessment of non-detriment, each permit is evaluated on a case-by-case basis.

Summary

Export of legally harvested polar bear from Canada is considered non-detrimental. Additional information on bears harvested from the Baffin Bay subpopulation can be found in Annex 2. Additional information on bears harvested from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation can be found in Annex 3.

Supporting information

Biological characteristics

Polar bears have a life span of 20–30 years and are slow to mature. Females are sexually mature between four and six years old and males begin to breed between the ages of eight and ten years. Females have low rates of reproduction, usually giving birth to one or two cubs about every three years, and cubs are dependent upon and remain with the female for an average of 2.5 years. Female reproductive success likely depends on body mass and condition of females at the beginning and at the end of periods of winter fasting. The survival rate of males is lower than females, in part due to sex-selectivity of the harvest.

Polar bears are apex predators that spend the majority of their time on sea ice. Productivity of the polar bear populations is largely dependent on the distribution, duration, and thickness of sea ice, which provides access to their main prey, ringed seals (Pusa hispida). Recent trends in loss of sea ice have modified polar bear distribution, foraging behaviour and access to ringed seals, particularly in the southern areas of their range.

Status and threats

Polar bears occur in a circumpolar distribution in Arctic habitats of Canada, Greenland, Norway, Russia and the United States. Canada’s population of polar bear consists of over 17,000 bears, which is two thirds of the estimated global total. The polar bear occurs in Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Ontario, Québec, and Yukon Territory.

The projected loss of sea ice is the primary threat to the species, reducing the availability of habitat and access to prey for polar bears across the entire range in Canada. The forecasted timeline and severity associated with this threat differ across the range, however. Other threats include contaminants, tourism, oil and gas exploration and development, and marine shipping. Pathogen prevalence linked to climate change is an emerging threat.

The polar bear has been listed as a species of Special Concern in Canada under the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA) since 2011, following a reassessment by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2008. COSEWIC reconfirmed the status of Special Concern when it reassessed the species in 2018. COSEWIC is an independent body of experts responsible for identifying and assessing wildlife species suspected of being at risk of extinction or extirpation in Canada.

The Polar Bear Technical Committee (PBTC) is a national-level scientific and Indigenous knowledge committee that facilitates management decisions by providing annual assessments on the status of polar bears based on science and Indigenous knowledge. The PBTC comprises representatives from each jurisdiction where polar bears are found in Canada. Representatives include provincial, territorial, and federal government scientists, experts from within Indigenous groups, Wildlife Management Boards and ex-officio members from the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, the United States Geological Survey, the North Slope Borough and the Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, with whom Canada works on managing shared subpopulations.

Based on scientific assessment, the 2022 PBTC report indicates that an estimated 54% of the total polar bears in Canada are in subpopulations that have a recent (15-year) population trend of likely increasing or stable/likely stable (6 of the 13 subpopulations). About 29% of polar bears are in subpopulations that are likely declining (4 of the 13 subpopulations), and about 17% of polar bears are in subpopulations for which trends are “uncertain” (3 of the 13 subpopulations). The majority (an estimated 54%) of polar bears in Canada are in subpopulations that are increasing, stable or likely stable. Since the publication of the 2022 PBTC report, the results of one 2021 survey for a subpopulation that PBTC had assessed as “likely decline” indicated a higher abundance estimate relative to the estimate from an earlier 2016 survey.

Based on Indigenous knowledge, the 2022 PBTC report indicates that 100% of polar bears in Canada have been assessed as either increased or stable (13 of the 13 subpopulations). An estimated 59% of the total polar bears in Canada are in subpopulations that have been assessed as increased (7 of 13 subpopulations). An estimated 36% of bears are in subpopulations assessed as stable (5 of 13 subpopulations), and about 5% of bears are in a single subpopulation assessed as likely increasing, and stable, in different areas within the subpopulation.

Harvest management

Canada’s Indigenous peoples have been harvesting polar bears for subsistence for thousands of years. In most areas where polar bear harvest occurs in Canada, a formal harvest management system, involving federal, provincial, and territorial governments, has been in place since the 1970s. Management of polar bear harvest in Canada is conducted with the goal of long-term population sustainability, and takes into account mortality from human-bear conflict and concerns for human safety.

Canada’s provinces and territories have jurisdiction to make laws relating to their natural resources, including wildlife and wildlife management. The federal government has jurisdiction to make laws in relation to its own land, waters and inter‐jurisdictional and international issues. Land claims agreements establish rights for Indigenous peoples that are recognized by Canada’s constitution and include rights to harvest and manage wildlife. Wildlife management Boards, comprised of Indigenous peoples and government representatives, are established under land claims agreements to make wildlife management decisions or recommendations, which are forwarded to the appropriate provincial, territorial, and federal ministers, for consideration and finalization. Each jurisdiction makes management decisions according to its jurisdictional processes. When there are shared subpopulations, there is coordination between Wildlife Management Boards, Indigenous organizations, provinces, territories and the federal government, facilitated by the Polar Bear Administrative Committee (PBAC) and other countries as appropriate. The PBAC is composed of provincial, territorial, and federal wildlife directors, representatives of Wildlife Management Boards and Indigenous organizations with management authority for polar bears.

The relevant wildlife acts and associated regulations, inter-jurisdictional agreements, land claims agreements and international agreements are listed at the end of this document.

While specific management goals vary amongst subpopulations, the overarching objectives for the polar bear population in Canada are as follows:

At the subpopulation level, the management approach must be flexible enough to account for adjustments in harvest rates to sustain subsistence needs of Indigenous peoples, changing environmental conditions, and in some cases increased risk to public safety while remaining aligned with sound conservation principles. Most of the subpopulations in Canada are being managed with the goal of maintaining population size.

Management decisions are based on verification and evaluation of the best available scientific research and Indigenous knowledge, including evaluation by the PBTC, harvest statistics and population trends derived from modelling tools. Polar bear harvest is managed through an adaptive management framework, which means that the outcomes of specific management actions are regularly evaluated and adjustments are made as necessary. Where a subpopulation is being managed for a population reduction, Canada’s Scientific Authority will look for management objectives that demonstrate the objective of sustainable harvest over the longer term, and that provide clarity on the level of reduction sought and the timeframe over which this goal is to be achieved.

Once completed, the national management plan for polar bear that is required under the Species at Risk Act (SARA) will be a compendium of six jurisdictional polar bear management plans and recovery strategies, plus a federal addition. The federal addition was developed by Environment and Climate Change Canada in close cooperation with domestic polar bear co-management partners (including provincial and territorial governments, Wildlife Management Boards and Indigenous organizations). The federal addition will build upon the jurisdictional management plans and recovery strategies that are already in place (Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Nunavut and Ontario) or currently being developed (Qúebec, Manitoba and Newfoundland and Labrador). It will also build on the National Polar Bear Conservation Strategy (2011), which was developed by PBAC with support of the PBTC to guide polar bear co-management activities undertaken by domestic co-management partners across Canada.

In the early 1990s, a management system with a 2:1 male-biased harvest sex ratio with a maximum female harvest rate of 1.5% was implemented in most of Canada, to maximize harvest opportunities while maintaining population sustainability. This was based on modelling studies showing that adult females are the most important contributors to population growth. The corresponding overall harvest rate for males and females under this 2:1 harvest system is 4.5%.

In 2018, for the Baffin Bay and Kane Basin subpopulations only, based on ecological and demographic information, Indigenous knowledge, and a harvest assessment prepared for the Canada-Greenland Joint Commission on Polar Bear, Nunavut adopted a harvest management system that allows for up to a maximum 50% female take of the total allowable harvest. The decision to use a harvest sex ratio of 1:1 rather than the 2:1 male to female harvest system that was widely employed elsewhere at the time was supported by the harvest assessment and took into account that un-harvested survival is lower for males than for females in these subpopulations, and that depletion of males may be an emerging conservation concern.

Starting in the 2019/20 harvest season, and following extensive consultations and public feedback from communities, Nunavut adopted a harvest management system throughout the territory that allowed communities to harvest up to 1 female for every male (the “Up to 1:1 harvest system”). Communities had expressed concerns about the difficulties in the administration of the 2:1 harvest system and the excessive penalizations that occurred when females were over-harvested. Protections remain in place for denning bears and females with offspring (family groups). However, there is potential for a decrease in population growth rate as a result of this management change due to increased allowable female harvest. Its effects on the actual sex ratio of harvested bears are being monitored.

Control of harvest

Polar bear harvest is managed throughout most of Canada by controls on hunting methods, licensing requirements, quotas or harvest limits, numbered tags, and reporting requirements.

The mechanism for control of harvest differs depending on the province or territory. For Newfoundland and Labrador, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and Yukon Territory, which together comprise the vast majority of the polar bear population in Canada, harvest of polar bear is controlled through a total allowable harvest and community specific quota allocation system. The quotas are reviewed and updated annually by the relevant provincial or territorial government. The quota review follows specific processes that incorporate input from Wildlife Management Boards. All human-caused polar bear mortalities are accounted for under the quotas: Indigenous harvest, non-resident sport hunting, known illegal take, and take in defense of life and property. Numbered, non-reusable tags are permanently attached to the hides of all harvested bears and help to ensure that quotas have been respected. Harvest tags and documentation associated with transfers of ownership or transfers between jurisdictions allow for accurate monitoring of the number of animals harvested per year in each province and territory. Tags also provide a link to information on sex and age class of the bear.

In Nunavut, if the total allowable harvest is not used in full, the unused portion may be recorded as credits that can be applied in subsequent years to offset a season with overharvest and avoid penalties that would result in quota reductions. Alternatively, the credits could be applied for use in a following year, subject to approval of Regional Wildlife Organizations, to augment harvest opportunities. Credits for a particular subpopulation accumulate until a new total allowable harvest decision is determined, at which point unused credits are set to zero. The credit system was established as an incentive for the cautious harvest of polar bears by communities that had curtailed hunting despite available tags in order to avoid the risk of harvesting more females than was allowed in a particular year. Credits were also meant to absorb kills for defense of life and property, which are counted as part of the total allowable harvest.

The Nunavut Polar Bear Harvest Administration and Credit Calculation System (HACCS) has undergone revisions to accommodate the transition to the Up to 1:1 harvest system. As per the most recent version of HACCS approved in February 2022, requests to Regional Wildlife Organizations to apply accumulated credits for use in a following year will automatically be sent to the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board for review of a potential conservation concern when the number of credits in the request is greater than 25% of the subpopulation total allowable harvest.

In the provinces of Manitoba and Ontario, polar bear removals are very limited and export is generally not permitted.

In the province of Québec, harvest is managed by agreement between Indigenous peoples and the provincial government. Offshore areas are managed by agreements between Indigenous peoples, the federal government and the Nunavut government. Reporting of polar bear kills is incomplete. In Québec, there is no legal requirement for Nunavik Inuit and Eeyou Istchee Cree to report kills, but the Québec Government has been compiling harvest reports and issuing tags since 1985 to allow hunters to sell and export their polar bear hides. Since 2018, the Eeyou Marine Region Wildlife Board has been working with the coastal Cree Trappers’ organizations to improve the reporting of polar bear kills in the Eeyou Marine Region and the sharing of this information to the province.

Historically there has been no quota in Québec, but harvested bears must be reported and tagged to be able to be sold to non-Indigenous people and to be exported out of the province. A harvest limit was established in 2016 applying to a part of the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation in Québec within the Nunavik Marine Region, but the implementation of this limit remains challenging. A more formal management system in line with those in other provinces and territories, including total reporting of the harvest, is in progress.

There is little evidence of illegal harvest in Canada. Compliance and quality of reporting of harvest are high, because provinces and territories and Indigenous peoples have a common interest in ensuring long-term, sustainable harvest. Confidence in the harvest management system is high because the adaptive management systems allow for strict controls of harvest and are reactive to changing conditions.

Harvest trend

The number of polar bears harvested in Canada is below total allowable harvest levels and has ranged between about 475 and 650 bears annually in the last three decades, which is between 3% and 4% of the estimated population size. This is also below the historical guidepost for sustainable harvest of 4.5% annual removal under a 2:1 male-to-female harvest sex ratio.

Overall, based on a reported harvest in Canada of 475 polar bears in 2020-2021, the most recent hunting season for which data are available, and an additional 100 bears harvested outside of Canada in subpopulations that Canada shares with Greenland and the United States, harvest levels are approximately 3.3% of the estimated total population size of over 17,000 polar bears.

Over the past five harvest seasons (2016-2021), total reported harvest in Canada has fluctuated, ranging from 475 to 533. Harvest levels are lower relative to the previous five harvest seasons (2011-2016) when total reported harvest underwent a decline from 637 to 534.

Population and harvest monitoring

Harvest data are collected, including information on subpopulation, harvest location, evidence of sex, date, tag number, age (tooth extraction for aging) and whether the bear was part of a family unit in most provinces and territories. Population status data are obtained from various sources including mark and recapture surveys (physical and DNA), aerial surveys, Indigenous knowledge, harvest data, and population viability analyses (statistical modelling). These periodic population estimates, and the information that is collected on an ongoing basis through implementation of harvest controls, are used to monitor subpopulation status and trends, and to ensure that harvest levels are appropriate.

Monitoring a large carnivore that covers vast areas of the Canadian Arctic is complex. Multi-year planning is coordinated across Canada and targeted to areas of potential conservation concern. Repeat monitoring occurs on a regular basis and the timing of monitoring is dependent on multiple factors including the monitoring method used, management objectives, conservation concerns, the age and quality of available data, and other research objectives.

For subpopulations assessed as “likely declining” in the scientific assessments of the 2022 PBTC report (Davis Strait, Southern Beaufort Sea, Southern Hudson Bay, and Western Hudson Bay), Canada’s Scientific Authority will continue to pay particular attention to all aspects of harvest and management.

Incentives and benefits of harvest

Effective management of polar bears in Canada is an objective of governments, co-management bodies, and harvesters. A sustainable long-term harvest is dependent on viable wildlife populations thereby promoting a stewardship attitude towards both the polar bear and its habitat. In general, harvest activities support livelihoods of northern Indigenous peoples and assist in managing the conservation of polar bears and the reduction of human-bear conflict. Trade incentives are also important in engaging local communities in sustainable harvest practices.

Some Indigenous peoples with the right to harvest, benefit from the harvest of polar bear for skins, meat, traditional activities and guided hunt income. In Nunavut and Northwest Territories, some of the tags may be allocated to non-Indigenous people for guided sport hunting purposes if the hunt is guided by an Indigenous person using traditional methods of hunting. In this way, the majority of the money generated by hunting activities goes to northern Indigenous communities that may have few other sources of income and value-added revenue.

Polar bear harvest and defense kill data also provide important information on location, movements, genetics, diet, health contaminants and other characteristics of polar bear subpopulations that might not otherwise be available. These harvest data are an essential supplement to regular systematic population surveys and other research programs. They are also an important pathway for increasing Indigenous involvement in the formal management structure of their region, which, in turn, enables an effective and robust harvest management structure.

Protection from harvest

The adaptive management framework currently applied to polar bear harvest management programs in Canada is very effective at preventing over-harvest of the species. Restrictive measures can be applied if necessary and compliance is high because local people are involved in decision-making. In general, the species can be hunted in most of its occupied range, but jurisdictions have the ability to manage harvest to achieve specific conservation goals. This is reinforced through export controls. Cubs, females with cubs and bears digging or in dens cannot be harvested, with rare exceptions such as by Indigenous peoples in Nunavut with restrictions and specific regions of Ontario, or for defense of life and property. In practice, the CITES Scientific Authority advises no trade in cubs (bears less than one year old) or mothers with cubs.

Additional information

Polar Bear Technical Committee (PBTC). 2022. 2022 Polar Bear Technical Committee Status Table and Supporting Information. Website: https://www.polarbearscanada.ca/en/polar-bears-canada/canadas-polar-bear-subpopulations.

Cooper, E.W.T. 2022. Review and Analysis of Canadian Trade in Polar Bears from 2012–2021. Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, Canada, 98 pp. Website: https://docs.google.com/viewer?url=https://polarbearagreement.org/component/edocman/review-and-analysis-of-canadian-trade-in-polar-bears-from-2012-21/fdocument?Itemid=9999.

Annex 1: Acts, Regulations and Agreements relating to polar bear for each province and territory, in Canada and internationally

Manitoba

The Wildlife Act (1987)

The Polar Bear Protection Act (2002)

The Endangered Species and Ecosystems Act (1990)

Newfoundland and Labrador

Wild Life Act (1990)

Wild Life Regulations Under the Wild Life Act (1996)

Newfoundland and Labrador Regulation 26/07 (Open Season Big Game Polar Bear Hunting Order, Labrador, under the Wild Life Regulations and the Wild Life Act) (2007)

Labrador Inuit Land Claims Agreement

Northwest Territories

Wildlife Act

Wildlife Act Big Game Hunting Regulations

The Species at Risk (NWT) Act (2009)

Inuvialuit Settlement Region Aklavik Hunters and Trappers Committee Regulations

Inuvialuit Settlement Region Inuvik Hunters and Trappers Committee Regulations

Inuvialuit Settlement Region Sachs Harbour Hunters and Trappers Committee Regulations

Inuvialuit Settlement Region Olokhaktomiut Hunters and Trappers Committee Regulations

Inuvialuit Settlement Region Tuktoyaktuk Hunters and Trappers Committee Regulations

Inuvialuit Settlement Region Paulatuk Hunters and Trappers Committee Regulations

The Western Arctic Claim—The Inuvialuit Final Agreement (and Amendments)

Inuvialuit–Inupiat Polar Bear Management Agreement in the Southern Beaufort Sea (2011, in place since 1988)

Polar Bear Management Agreement for the North Beaufort Sea and Viscount-Melville Sound Polar Bear Populations—Between the Inuit of the Kitikmeot West Region in Nunavut and the Inuvialuit (2006)

Inuvialuit Settlement Region Polar Bear Joint Management Plan (2017)

Nunavut

Wildlife Act (2005)

Harvesting Regulations

Polar Bear Total Allowable Harvest Order (R-011-2005) (and Amendments)

Nunavut Polar Bear Co-management Plan (2019)

Note: the co-management plan replaces the Memoranda of Understanding established for each polar bear subpopulation subsequent to the creation of Nunavut between the Nunavut Department of Environment and each Regional Wildlife Organization and Hunting and Trapping Organization, to guide harvest and management.

Nunavut Polar Bear Harvest Administration and Credit Calculation System (Up to 1:1 Harvest System). Most recent version approved in February 2022.

Polar Bear Management Agreement for the North Beaufort Sea and Viscount-Melville Sound Polar Bear Populations - Between the Inuit of the Kitikmeot West Region in Nunavut and the Inuvialuit (2006)

Nunavut Land Claims Agreement (and Amendment)

Ontario

Fish and Wildlife Conservation Act (1997)

Endangered Species Act (2007)

Ontario Polar Bear Recovery Strategy (2011)

Québec

Act respecting hunting and fishing rights in the James Bay and New Québec territories

An Act Respecting the Conservation and Development of Wildlife (2002)

Polar Bear Regulations (1984)

James Bay and Northern Québec Agreement and Complementary Agreements

Agreement Respecting the Implementation of the James Bay and Northern Quebec Agreement Between Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada and Makivik Corporation

Nunavik Inuit Land Claims Agreement

Eeyou Marine Region Land Claims Agreement

Agreement Relating to the Cree/Inuit Offshore Overlapping Interests Area Between the Crees of Quebec and the Nunavik Inuit (2002)

Yukon Territory

Wildlife Act (2002)

Wildlife Act Regulation (2012)

Western Arctic Claim – The Inuvialuit Final Agreement (and Amendments)

Inuvialuit–Inupiat Polar Bear Management Agreement in the Southern Beaufort Sea (2011) (in place since 1988)

Canada

Wild Animal and Plant Protection and Regulation of International and Interprovincial Trade Act (WAPPRIITA)

Species at Risk Act (SARA)

International

1973 Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears (signed by all range states including: Canada, Greenland (Denmark), Norway, United States, and the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (Russia)

Memorandum of Understanding Between Environment Canada and the United States Department of the Interior for the Conservation and Management of Shared Polar Bear Populations (2008)

Memorandum of Understanding between the Government of Canada, the Government of Nunavut, and the Government of Greenland for the Conservation and Management of Polar Bear Populations (2009)

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) (184 Parties)

Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (120 Parties; signed by one of the range states, Norway)

Map - See long description below

Figure 1. Overview of the circumpolar polar bear subpopulations and their population boundaries. The Canadian populations are: SB – Southern Beaufort Sea; NB – Northern Beaufort Sea; VM – Viscount Melville Sound; NW – Norwegian Bay; LS – Lancaster Sound; MC – M’Clintock Channel; GB – Gulf of Boothia; WH – Western Hudson Bay; FB – Foxe Basin; SH – Southern Hudson Bay; KB – Kane Basin; BB – Baffin Bay; DS – Davis Strait.

Source: Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2018

Web site: Circumpolar polar bear map: ECCC

Long description of figure 1

Map of the circumpolar distribution of the polar bear. The map is centered on the North Pole, and includes the northern coasts of Europe, Russia, and North America down to approximately the 50th parallel. The North American portion appears at the bottom of the map with Europe and Russia at the top.

Each polar bear subpopulation is delineated with a bold line, and they are shaped like various polygons. In total, there are 19 subpopulations: 5 which occur outside of Canada and 14 that occur within or overlap with Canada.

International subpopulations are as follows (clockwise, starting in the west near Alaska): Chukchi Sea (CS), Laptev Sea (LV), Kara Sea (KS), Barents Sea (BS), and East Greenland (EG).

Canadian subpopulations (abbreviations): Viscount Melville Sound (VM), Norwegian Bay (NW), Kane Basin (KB), Lancaster Sound (LS), Baffin Bay (BB), Davis Strait (DS) Southern Hudson Bay (SH), Western Hudson Bay (WH), Foxe Basin (FB), Gulf of Boothia (GB), M’Clintock Channel (MC), Southern Beaufort Sea (SB), Northern Beaufort Sea (NB) and the Arctic Basin (AB).

Annex 2: Additional information related to the Baffin Bay subpopulation in Canada

Non-detriment finding advice for Baffin Bay management unit

Harvest and export from the Baffin Bay subpopulation is considered non-detrimental (a positive NDF) for bears harvested before March 10, 2010 and after July 1, 2013.

History of the NDF advice for Baffin Bay management unit

Prior to March 10, 2010, export of legally-harvested bears from the Baffin Bay management unit was considered non-detrimental. Between March 10, 2010 and June 30, 2017, negative NDF advice was in place for export from the Baffin Bay management unit and, as a result, export of bears harvested in Baffin Bay during this time period was not permitted. The negative NDF was based on increased total harvest levels from both Nunavut and Greenland and model projections based on demographic rates indicating a population decline. On July 1, 2017, in consideration of available information on population size and trends as well as harvest quotas, it was concluded harvest and export from the Baffin Bay management unit is non-detrimental (a positive NDF) for bears harvested before March 10, 2010 and after July 1, 2013. The date of July 1, 2013 corresponds with when Canada reduced harvest quotas, jointly with Greenland, to the level in place for the 2017/2018 harvest season and the updated population study data had been collected.

Population status and trend

The Baffin Bay subpopulation was estimated at 2074 bears in 1997. Beginning in 2011, the Government of Nunavut, in partnership with Government of Greenland, implemented an intensive, three-year research program to derive an updated population estimate, the results of which were reviewed and confirmed in the 2017 PBTC status table. The results of the recent research indicate a higher population size than in the previous study from 1997 (2826 bears compared to 2074 bears). Note that the new 2016 estimate cannot be directly compared to the previous study to determine a historical trend with confidence due to differences in study methods and area coverage. The historical trend is considered to be uncertain and the recent trend (less than 15 years) is considered to be ‘likely stable’.

Harvest management

Given the subpopulation estimates published in 2016, the combined harvest in Baffin Bay between Greenland and Canada is considered sustainable. The Government of Nunavut reduced its annual harvest quota by 10 bears each year over a four year period, from 105 bears in the 2009–2010 harvest season to 65 bears in the 2013–2014 harvest season, and this remains the quota for the 2017/2018 harvest season. The management objective may be reviewed in light of the new population information, however, the current objective of Nunavut and Greenland is to maintain a stable population of bears with a sustainable quota that accounts for all human caused mortality including annual harvest and take of bears for defense of life and property.

Annex 3. Additional information related to the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation

Management of the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation is a shared responsibility of the governments of Nunavut, Québec, Ontario, and Canada, as well as multiple Wildlife Management Boards and advisory councils, including the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (NWMB), Nunavik Marine Region Wildlife Board (NMRWB), Eeyou Marine Region Wildlife Board (EMRWB), and the Hunting, Fishing and Trapping Coordinating Committee (HFTCC). In addition to management responsibilities under land claims agreements, the federal Minister of Environment and Climate Change also has an obligation to ensure that polar bear harvest is sustainable in accordance with the international Agreement on the Conservation of Polar Bears and that the trade of polar bear products does not threaten the survival of the species in accordance with the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES).

Reporting of polar bear kills approaches 100% in Nunavut but is incomplete in Québec. The lack of complete reporting has been noted as an impediment to effective harvest management. In Québec, there is no legal requirement for Nunavik Inuit and Eeyou Istchee Cree to report kills, but the Québec Government has been compiling harvest reports and issuing tags since 1985 to allow hunters to sell and export their polar bear hides. Since 2018, the Eeyou Marine Region Wildlife Board has been working with the coastal Cree Trappers’ organizations to improve reporting of polar bear kills in the Eeyou Marine Region and the sharing of this information to the province. The new management plan currently in the process of being adopted for Québec and the adjacent marine areas is expected to result in increased monitoring of the harvest occurring there.

During the 2020-2021 hunting season, Nunavut Inuit harvested 47 polar bears from the Southern Hudson Bay polar bear subpopulation. This harvest is well above the Total Allowable Harvest (TAH) limit established by the NWMB of 25 polar bears. The high harvest was permitted in accordance with the Territory’s interim harvest administration system via the conversion of a large number of harvest credits to harvest tags. On June 10, 2020, Government of Nunavut officials proposed measures to avoid a similar situation arising in the future. Environment and Climate Change Canada officials concurred, emphasizing that the use of up to 29 harvest credits in a single year in a single subpopulation would pose a serious conservation concern.

The combined annual quota for Nunavut Inuit (25) and Nunavik Inuit harvesting within the Nunavik Marine Region (22), plus the average annual take by Cree in Québec (1.1) and Ontario (1.8) is approximately 50 polar bears. Taking Nunavut’s 2020-2021 hunting season harvest into account, if other groups had harvested up to their allowable level, total removal could have approached or exceeded 72 bears, which is nearly 10% of the then-estimated population size. Such harvest rates can cause significant harm to a subpopulation and jeopardize long-term hunting opportunities. The total reported harvest within the subpopulation was lower for 2020-2021 (55 polar bears, including kills reported from Nunavut, Québec, and Ontario), representing 7.1% of the population estimate. The number of reported female kills was 22, representing 2.9% of the estimated population size. Considering that there is incomplete reporting of the harvest in Québec, the harvest that occurred could be greater than those figures. These harvest rates exceed the historical sustainable guideposts for harvest rates of 4.5% overall, and 1.5% for female harvest.

Following the 2020-2021 harvest season, changes to Nunavut’s Polar Bear Harvest Administration System and Credit Calculation System (HACCS) were made following a NWMB decision and Nunavut Government approval. The revised system stipulates that requests for credits that are greater than 25% of the subpopulation TAH in a given harvest year will automatically be sent to the NWMB for review of a potential conservation concern.

In 2021, aerial surveys were flown in Southern Hudson Bay and Western Hudson Bay. Technical reportsFootnote 1 for both surveys were completed in November 2022. Two population estimates for Southern Hudson Bay were produced from these surveys. The first estimate was 1003 (95% confidence interval of 773-1302), which is directly comparable to the previous 2016 estimate of 780 (95% confidence interval of 590-1029) and suggests a 29% increase from 2016 to 2021. The second estimate was 1119 (95% confidence interval of 860-1454) and was produced using a novel approach which corrects for a sampling issue. While it is not directly comparable to the 2016 population estimate, the estimate at the time the 2021 aerial survey was flown is more robust.

The report indicates that the increase in the abundance estimate for Southern Hudson Bay may be due to a combination of factors. There is evidence of annual variation in the distribution of bears in Southern Hudson Bay and Western Hudson Bay, and the report indicates that there was likely some temporary movement of bears into Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation from the adjacent Western Hudson Bay subpopulation in 2021. The report also suggests the increased abundance in Southern Hudson Bay can be attributed in some part to improved population growth (e.g., high reproductive output and survival of cubs), which is supported by the observation that ice conditions have generally been good over the last five years relative to the time period between 2011 and 2016. In addition, reported polar bear harvest was lower during the period between 2016 and 2021 than between 2010 and 2015 (37.8 bears per year compared to 58.8 bears per year).

The CITES Scientific Authority considers both scientific information and Indigenous knowledge when providing advice about non-detriment. In the case of polar bear in the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation, at the time of the 2020-2021 hunting season, scientific experts had estimated a 17% decline in abundance over the last 10-15 years, in association with long-term, ongoing reductions in sea ice coverage. Indigenous knowledge holders have shared that polar bear numbers are stable or increasing in the region and that the bears they encounter are in good physical condition. The CITES Scientific Authority takes a cautious approach when there is a discrepancy between available sources of information.

In considering the changes made to HACCS, which were approved in February 2022, the CITES Scientific Authority notes that the new provision for a mandatory NWMB review for requests to convert credits into tags that are greater than 25% of the subpopulation TAH increases oversight for such scenarios. The Scientific Authority also notes that continued use of female credits to augment harvest opportunities in the Up to 1:1 harvest system, may increase female harvest pressure generally. The Scientific Authority will continue to monitor this and other aspects of polar bear management for this subpopulation.

Finally, the CITES Scientific Authority has taken note of the recent findings from a 2021 survey for the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation. The analysis of the survey results suggests that the higher abundance estimate relative to the 2016 survey is the result of a combination of reduced harvest mortality during 2016-2021 relative to 2010-2015, improved reproductive output due to both reduced harvest mortality and improved ice conditions, and annual variation in the distribution of bears between the Southern Hudson and Western Hudson subpopulations.

The Scientific Authority recognizes that the lack of complete reporting in Québec is an impediment to effective harvest management and will monitor progress on this issue in the Québec portions of the subpopulation.

Based on the information available, the Scientific Authority generally advises that harvest and export from the Southern Hudson Bay subpopulation can be considered non-detrimental. The Scientific Authority will continue to carefully evaluate information on harvest management for the Southern Hudson Bay population as well as information regarding the subpopulation’s response to the recent management changes, when advising whether international trade can be considered non-detrimental.

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