Deputy Minister transition binder 2023: Meteorological Service of Canada
September 2023
Deputy Minister transition binder: Meteorological Service of Canada
Presentation outline
- Context and mandate
- Monitoring
- Modelling and high performance computing
- Prediction services
- Minister’s Mandate Letter
Increasingly unprecedented weather has become the new normal, putting communities and the economy at risk
- Climate action failure and extreme weather identified among the top 3 most severe global risksover the next 10 years (World Economic Form, Global Risk Report 2023).
- Of the 15 major events that occurred in 2022, two caused a substantial portion of the overall insured losses – the May 21 Derecho in Ontario and Quebec (>$1.2B) and Hurricane Fiona in Atlantic Canada in September (~$817 M).
2021
West coast heat wave
- 789 new daily high temperatures records set in Canada between June 26 and July 4.
- Significant Major health risk to vulnerable populations (619 heat related deaths).
- Ecological impact on water quality and animal life.
British Columbia flooding
- Extreme rainfall, power outages, dyke breaches, mudslides and extensive flooding.
- 4 fatalities.
- Impacts also included evacuation orders, road and rail closures, and gasoline purchase limits.
2022
Ontario and Quebec derecho
- A fast-moving line of storms swept along Canada’s most densely populated corridor.
- 12 fatalities.
- 6th most expensive natural disaster in Canadian history.
Hurricane Fiona, Atlantic provinces
- Wind gusts reached as high as 179km/h.
- 80% of NS and 95% of PEI were impacted by power outages.
- 1 fatality.
- Exceeded $800M in insured losses.
2023
Wildfires
- Canada is at national preparedness level 5 - full mobilization of national resources.
- >15M hectares burned as of September 7, 2023; exceeds the total burned in the entire 2021 wildfire season
The Meteorological Service of Canada has a unique federal mandate
- Provide Canadians with authoritative information on weather, water quantity, climate, ice, and air quality 24 hours/day, 365 days/year.
- Monitor, predict and warn Canadians of high impact weather, air quality and other environmental conditions to mitigate and reduce disaster-related risks.
- Support mission-critical operations of federal, provinces and territories, municipal, and private organizations that rely on MSC’s infrastructure, ECCC science capacity, and deliver on their mandate (e.g. aviation, emergency management, water management, military & marine ops).
- Deliver on international responsibilities related to data exchange, atmospheric modelling (e.g. emergency related to airborne substances, volcanic ash, chemical, biological, nuclear and radioactive (CBNR)), and marine forecast and warnings for defined areas of the Arctic Ocean.
The MSC operates an integrated system
Text description
Image presenting the integrated system of the MSC. It consists of the following benefit chains: “Real time Monitoring”, “Analysis and Prediction”, and “Services and Products”. The image also shows the interactions between “Global Data Gathering”, “ Modeling and Data Integration”, “Interpretation Services” and “Client Interfaces” which is composed of: “warnings”, “current conditions”, and “specialized services”. Finally, the image identifies users as Canadians (general public, media, educators), targeted clients (Canadian armed Forces, Coast Guard, Aviation), and other users (private meteorologists, emergency managers, private sector scientists, other GoC departments, climate research, provinces and territories).
With staff located across Canada
Text description
A map of Canada that illustrates some of the cities where MSC’s offices are located : Vancouver, Esquimalt, Victoria, Kelowna, Edmonton, Saskatoon, Winnipeg, Ottawa, Dorval, Montréal, Québec, Gagetown, Fredericton, Charlottetown, Halifax, Gander, St.John’s. Images are overlaid on the map, including (from left to right): a forecaster at a work station; a field technician in a swamp; an emergency management crew rescuing a girl during severe flooding; a technician looking at wires; two employees discussing while using a whiteboard.
- 1445 FTEs in over 50 offices in 45 cities across Canada
- Highly specialized expert workforce (meteorologists, scientists, engineers, etc)
- ~240M annual budget* including up to 46M/year of vote netted revenue
- Significant national asset footprint (observation networks)
*Decrease to ~200M in 23/24 due to sunsetting of B-base allocations
Monitoring the state of the environment is essential and at the core of this scientific organization
Every day the MSC collects, processes, and disseminates nearly one million domestic observations, from coast to coast, through several observing networks:
- Weather radar network which includes 32 operational radars.
- Marine weather network composed of 39 moored buoys, 41 Automatic Volunteer Observing Ships, and 19 drifter buoys.
- Surface weather and climate network comprising 589 automatic weather stations, 213 cooperative climate network stations, and 29 lighthouse stations.
- Upper-air network composed of 30 stations across Canada.
- Satellite-borne sensors delivering data to 8 ground receiving stations.
- 83 lightning detection sensors.
- ~2300 hydrometric monitoring stations (operated by the MSC on a cost-shared basis with the provinces and territories).
Text description
A map of Canada that shows the locations of infrastructure belonging to MSC’s various monitoring networks : ECCC Auto Stations automatiques (574), Aviation Monitoring Stations d’observation de l’aviation (376), Marine Monitoring Stations d’observation maritime (29), Volonteer Climate Stations climatique bénévole (399), Official Partner Stations d’observation partenaires (464), ECCC Moored Buoy (45), ECCC Radiosondes (30), Canadian Lightning Detection Network (82), AMDAR Airports (12), Radar Doppler Coverage, Radar Conventional Coverage. Infrastructures are found throughout Canada but the majority is located along Canada’s Southern boarder with the United States of America, where most of Canada’s population is situated.
MSC completes the replacement of its weather radar network
- The Canadian Weather Radar Replacement Project to be completed by March 2024 – on time and under budget.
- 33 new radars have been installed and will contribute to enhanced monitoring of weather and environmental conditions across the country.
Text description
A view of North America that illustrates the sites where the Canadian Weather Radar Network are located: Halfmoon Peak, Aldergrove, Prince George, Spirit River, Carvel, Strathmore, Schuler, Fort McMurray, Cold Lake, Radisson, Foxwarren, Woodlands, Dryden, Shuniah, Montreal River Harbour, Smooth Rock Falls, Exeter, Britt, Landrienne, King, Franktown, Mont Apica, Blainville, Saint-Francoise, Val d’Irene, Chipman, Marble Mountain, Gore, Marion Bridge, Holyrood.
MSC is a key player in advancing Canada’s Strategy for Satellite Earth Observation (EO)
The Strategy – launched in 2022 – jointly with Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED) and NRCan aims to:
- Ensure the benefits of satellite EO are maximized
- Harness satellite EO to tackle climate change and issues that matter to Canadians
- Strengthen delivery of critical services to keep Canadians healthy, safe and informed
- Inspire satellite EO skills and capacity development for the next generation
Computer prediction models are the engine of weather forecasting
- Continuous environmental observations are the foundation of weather prediction modelling.
- Models run continuously at global and Canada-wide scales, using high performance computing, to provide predictions of the future state of the atmosphere out to 7 days and beyond.
- Canada’s vast landscape necessitates top tier computer modelling capacity in order to fill gaps in on-the-ground monitoring.
- ECCC’s meteorological modelling platform and expertise supports whole of government priorities, including emergency management.
- Shared Services Canada manages ECCC’s high performance computing (HPC) capacity.
HPC supports weather and climate programs, as well as international commitments
- ECCC’s HPC feeds directly into improved operational models for weather disseminated by MSC, climate products disseminated by the Canadian Centre for Climate Services, and air quality prediction with HC and provinces.
- HPC also supports ECCC’s key international commitments under the United Nations Framework on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and others. Examples include:
- Contributions to all international activities that underpin Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessments.
- 1 of 13 WMO Global Producing Centres for long range forecasts up to the season.
- 1 of 4 WMO Decadal Climate prediction Producing Centres (with Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Germany’s Deutscher Wetterdienst, and the UK Met Office).
- 1 of 9 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres, providing specialized products for aviation safety during volcanic eruptions and 1 of 10 Regional Specialized Meteorological Centres that provides real-time 24/7 specialized atmospheric dispersion model products for environmental emergency.
Meteorologists analyze predictions and changing conditions to produce forecasts, warnings, and advice
In 2022:
- 115K public weather forecasts
- 17K severe weather warning
- 42K marine, ice and sea-state forecasts
- 244K air quality forecasts
- >11,000 client and media calls
- 90% Canadians seek weather information every day
- WeatherCAN app: >2.7M downloads
- ~4.5TB data downloaded daily by users
- Authoritative voice for issuing alerts and warnings to Canadians, public health authorities, and emergency management organizations.
- Provide impact-based services to public authorities to improve resilience of Canadians to unprecedented and extreme weather.
- Seven regionally-based prediction centers monitor the evolving weather 24 h/day, 7 day/week (along with the Canadian Hurricane Centre, 2 aviation forecast centres, the Canadian Ice Service and 3 defence weather centres).
- Warning Preparedness Meteorologists interact with media and P/T emergency managers and first responders.
- Canadians have access to weather services through multiple channels:
- weather.gc.ca;
- WeatherCAN app;
- Facebook and Twitter; and
- Weatheradio.
The MSC’s capabilities and services provide critical support to many specialized clients
| Client | Their role | MSC provides |
|---|---|---|
| Government Operations Centre (GOC) | The GOC performs assessments of all-hazard risks of national interest requiring coordinated response. They also convene all authorities and organizations in response. |
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| Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) | The CCG performs search and rescue, ice breaking operations, and disseminates mariner safety information in remote, weather-hazardous areas. |
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| Department of National Defence (DND) | DND defends Canadian sovereignty, assists in time of natural disasters and contributes to international peace support and peacekeeping operations. |
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| Emergency Management Organizations (EMO) | Provincial, Regional and Municipal EMOs plan for and respond to events that may impact citizens in their jurisdictions, including extreme weather events. |
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| Flood and Wildfire Forecasting Agencies | Provincial, Regional and Municipal agencies responsible for wildfire and flood forecasting/alerting and in some instances managing water levels. |
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| Public Health Authorities | Federal, Provincial and Municipal health authorities provide guidance and tools to help protect the health of Canadians including air quality and heat related events. |
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The MSC also promotes situational awareness through…
- Provision of multi-scale, multi-hazard 24/7 dispersion modelling to other ECCC specialists, NRCan, DND, NAV CANADA and PT EMOs in response to environmental emergencies, or volcanic ash events
- Modelling for biological, chemical, and nuclear incidents provided to Health Canada as well as international bodies such as the International Atomic Energy Agency and the World Meteorological Organization
- Weather forecasts and warnings to the aviation industry under contracted service with NAV CANADA – the private sector operator of the national air navigation system.
Investing in Canada’s hydro-meteorological services to support decision-making and increase climate resilience
- Regular investments are made to support and improve Canada’s hydro-meteorological services.
- 2022 Fall Economic Statement: Allocation of $196.1M over six years, starting in 2022-23) to safeguard ECCC’s access to mission-critical HPC capacity until 2027, and to take the first steps to securing the next generation of HPC.
- Budget 2023:
- Provision of $566.2M over 10 years in new funding and $54.6M ongoing for the MSC to renew sunsetting initiatives and support incremental improvements.
- Allocation of $164.2 million over five years, starting in 2023-24 for the Flood Hazard Identification and Mapping Program a component of Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy, of which $19.4 million for ECCC/MSC to provide essential scientific and engineering support.
- Together, these investments support Minister Guilbeault’s mandate letter commitment to:
- “Invest in the Meteorological Service of Canada to upgrade infrastructure, including information technology, to ensure it continues to effectively perform its vital functions of monitoring changes in the weather, climate, water, ice and air quality, and predicting weather and environmental conditions.”
- Investing in the MSC’s foundational capabilities supports adaptation efforts by providing Canadians and civil society critical information to prepare for and respond to extreme weather events, and to become more resilient to the impacts of our changing climate.
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