CIMM – International Student Cap Allocations – February 28, 2024

Key Facts and Figures

• Ministerial Instructions authorize IRCC to accept 606,250 study permit applications from students scoped under the measure from January 22, 2024 to January 21, 2025.
• The national cap is based on a zero net-growth model where the number of approved study permits in 2024 is meant to equal the number of permits expiring in 2024.
• Exempted cohorts, including graduate and K-12 students, were deducted from the overall national cap, leaving roughly 400K application spaces to allocate to provinces and territories.
• Provincial and territorial allocations were then distributed on a per-capita basis, with adjustments applied to limit growth or reductions, as applicable, to reasonable levels.

Key Messages

The National Cap

• The national cap is based on a zero net-growth model. This means the number of international students coming to Canada in 2024 should be equal to the number of students whose permit is expiring this year.
• For 2024, the zero net growth target is 485K study permits approved.
• About 20% of students apply for an extension and remain in the country. Therefore, IRCC subtracted 97K from the target of 485K, plus a small buffer to account for variation, leaving 364K as the target of study permits approved in 2024.

Ministerial Instructions

• Under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, IRCC has the authority via Ministerial Instructions to cap the number of applications accepted for processing.
• The national approval rate for study permit applications is approximately 60%. As a result, IRCC converted the target number of study permits approved for 2024 into an application target of 606K.
• While the Ministerial Instructions authorize IRCC to accept 606K applications for processing, IRCC has set aside a buffer from that total to enable in-year adjustments, if required. Similarly, should there be a need to reduce the overall number of applications accepted by IRCC, the Minister also retains the ability to revise the Ministerial Instructions to reduce the application cap.
• The objective is to maintain flexibility to respond to changing circumstances over the course of the year. There are many variables that could affect the number of study permits that will be approved in 2024. These variables include fluctuations in the approval rate, significant changes in Designated Learning Institution and applicant behaviour and the regulatory and allocation choices of provinces and territories. IRCC will monitor trends carefully and maintain continuous communication with provinces and territories.

Exemptions

• Some international students have been exempted from the cap, including primary and secondary school students, master's or doctoral degree students, in-Canada study and work permit holders, and in-Canada family members of study permit or work permit holders.
• IRCC has estimated the volume of these groups for the coming year and deducted that number from the zero net growth calculation. Based on the 2023 volumes of these groups, IRCC subtracted 140K plus a small buffer to account for growth.
• This leaves a target of 236K new study permits approved for 2024, which converts to 393K application spaces to be distributed among the provinces and territories.

Provincial and Territorial Allocations

• IRCC distributed the remaining allocation spaces based on the population share in each province and territory (PT). This resulted in different scenarios for PTs where some would get more students in 2024 than in 2023, while others would see less new students.
• To mitigate the magnitude of the growth or reduction, IRCC adjusted PT allocations whereby growth would be no more than 10% over 2023, given that a 10% increase in a single year is already significant.
• Similarly, IRCC limited reductions to support immigration objectives and to lessen the economic impact to the sector.
  • Where the reduction would have been less than 40%, it has been limited to 10%.
  • Where the reduction would have been more than 40%, the reduction was decreased to the amount that would have been allocated if net zero target did not factor-in the exemptions, (resulting in a larger base of 364K study permits approved), distributed by population share.
• The allocations provided to PTs apply to study permit applications for the students subject to the national cap only. Applications for students at the K-12 and graduate levels remain uncapped.
• As a result of the adjustments, the revised allocations to PTs now add up to 487K study permit applications, which is expected to result in 292K study permits approved. This represents a 28% reduction for the capped cohorts of students when compared to 2023.
• However, as noted, many variables will influence the year-end result, including whether PTs with room to grow use their full allocations, whether approval rates change, whether in-year adjustments are required and so on.

Supplementary Information

• To reflect the volumes of the cohorts that are exempted from the cap, IRCC subtracted the following from the net zero growth target of 485K:
  • The number of students expected to remain in Canada by renewing their study permit;
  • The number of study permits expected to be issued to cohorts exempted from the cap, and
  • A small buffer to account for variations in approval rates.