Woodland caribou scientific review to identify critical habitat: chapter 23
Appendix 6.9
Estimates of Numbers and Trends for the Boreal Population of Woodland Caribou Provided By Jurisdictions
Note: Caribou local population estimates in the following chart may not fully account for themovement of caribou between jurisdictions within trans-boundary ranges (e.g., some caribouthat cross provincial/territorial borders may be represented more than once). Also, someof the local population size estimates and trend data are based primarily on professionaljudgement and limited data and not on rigorously collected fi eld data.
Local Population refers to the 39 recognized discrete local populations; Unit of analysisrefers to the remaining units of which 6 units in NWT are the results of sub-dividing a largearea of relatively continuous habitat considered to be occupied by one large population intounits of analysis. Eight units in Saskatchewan represent units of analysis for multiple localpopulations within an area of relatively continuous habitat. The 4 remaining units of analysis found in parts of Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Labrador include possible multiple localpopulations within a large area of relatively continuous habitat. In the absence of defi ned localpopulations and units of analysis for these areas, the extent of occurrence was considered tocomprise the unit of analysis for these 4 units.
map # | Local Population or Unit of analysis |
Year of Census |
Extent of Survey Coverage |
Local Population Size Estimate |
Confidence Limits | Current Local Population Trend |
Cross-Jurisdictional | ||||||
1 | AB/BC Chinchaga | AB – Annual BC - 2004 |
AB – Prescise pop. Trend estimate only (AB does not enumerate caribou) BC - Incomplete |
250-300 (includes former Hotchkiss Local Population) |
AB- Size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data BC – Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage |
AB - Rapidly decline (Mean = 0.93 during 2002-2006; Range=0.80-1.06) BC – Suspected Declining based on professional judgement |
2 | AB/NWT Bistcho | AB – 2005 NWT - unknown |
AB – Prescise pop. Trend estimate only (AB does not enumerate caribou) NWT – Incomplete |
300 | AB- Size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data NWT – Estimates based on minimum numbers observed from flights |
Suspected declining based on professional judgement agreed to by both jurisdictions |
3 | AB/NWT Steen River \ Yates |
AB – 2005 NWT - unknown |
AB – Prescise pop. Trend estimate only (AB does not enumerate caribou) NWT - unknown |
300 | AB- Size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data NWT – unknown |
Unknown |
map # | Local Population or Unit of analysis |
Year of Census |
Extent of Survey Coverage |
Local Population Size Estimate |
Confidence Limits |
Current Local Population Trend |
Northwest Territories Reported data: Estimates for the units representing continuously distributed local population were derived from density estimates surrounding collared animals, and then extrapolated to larger geographic areas, or for the North Slave region, a density estimate was developed from aerial surveys. Reported trends are expert opinion from NWT based on size estimates over time. |
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4 | NWT Inuvialuit | 2005 | Incomplete | Unknown | Unknown | Unknown |
5 | NWT Gwich’in | 2005 | Incomplete | 500 | The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals | Increasing based on professional judgement |
6 | NWT Sahtu | 2005 | Incomplete | 2000 | The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals | Unknown |
7 | NWT North Slave | 2005 | Incomplete | 700 | The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals | Unknown |
8 | NWT Dehcho (N/SW) | 2005 | Incomplete | 2000 | The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals | likely decline based on professional judgement |
9 | NWT South Slave/SE Dehcho |
2005 | Incomplete | 600 | The population estimate is based on extrapolation of densities from minimum numbers observed from other areas in NWT with collared animals | likely declining based on recruitment and cow survival–based on 5 years of trend data |
map # | Local Population or Unit of analysis |
Year of Census |
Extent of Survey Coverage |
Local Population Size Estimate |
Confidence Limits | Current Local Population Trend |
British Columbia | ||||||
10 | BC Maxhamish | 2004 | Incomplete | 306 | Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage | Unknown |
11 | BC Calendar | 2004 | Incomplete | 291 (best estimate) |
Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage | Unknown |
12 | BC Snake Sahtaneh | 2004 | Incomplete | 365 (best estimate) |
Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage |
Suspected Declining Report for the Snake Satenah had 94% adult female survival and calf recruitment of 5-9 calves/100 cows which is essentially a lambda of 1, but the low calf recruitment concluded that the local population was suspected declining. However, the study was too short to make any firm conclusions. |
13 | BC Parker Core | 2007 | Incomplete | 24 (best estimate) |
Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage |
Unknown |
14 | BC Prophet Core | 2004 | Incomplete | 54 (best estimate) |
Average based on several different extrapolations from partial inventory coverage |
Unknown |
Alberta | ||||||
15 | AB Deadwood | 2005 | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
40 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Suspect declining. Local population trend not measured. |
16 | AB Caribou Mountains | Annual | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
400-500 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Rapidly declining (mean= 0.92 during 1995 – 2007 Range = 0.73 – 1.14) |
17 | AB Red Earth | Annual | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
250-350 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Rapidly declining (mean= 0.94 during 1995 – 2007 Range = 0.81 – 1.30) |
18 | AB West Side Athabasca River |
Annual | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
300-400 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Declining (mean= 0.99 during 1993 – 2007; range = 0.83 – 1.14) |
19 | AB Richardson | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
<100 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Unknown. Local population trend not measured. |
|
20 | AB East Side Athabasca River |
Annual | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
150-250 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Declining (mean= 0.95 during 1993 – 2007; range = 0.80 – 1.08) |
21 | AB Cold Lake Air Weapons Range |
Annual | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
100-150 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Rapidly declining (mean= 0.93 during 1998 – 2007; range = 0.75 – 1.05) |
22 | AB Nipisi | 60-70 | Unknown | |||
23 | AB Slave Lake | Annual | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
75 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Unknown |
24 | AB Little Smoky | Annual | Local population trend estimate (AB does not enumerate caribou) |
80 | Local population size estimate based on professional judgement and available field data |
Rapidly declining (mean= 0.89 during 1999 – 2007 Range = 0.77 – 1.04) |
map # | Local Population or Unit of analysis |
Year of Census |
Extent of Survey Coverage |
Local Population Size Estimate |
Confidence Limits | Current Local Population Trend |
Saskatchewan Data reported: The survey used by Saskatchewan Wildlife Branch in the 1980s and early 1990s was one developed by government staff based on advice from some caribou researchers at the time. Surveys were conducted in late November or early December (but were never successful for a variety of reasons). Staff then chose to fly as soon as possible after a fresh snowfall, conducting a transect survey each morning using tightly spaced lines to pick up fresh caribou signs and record. Each afternoon staff would return with a helicopter to search out the sign, locate, count and sex/age the animals. In a survey in 1992, a helicopter was used for everything and simply went off transect each time fresh caribou signs were encountered - following up the sign, recording it, and returning to transect. Sunny days with shadows to show up the tracks were preferrable in contrast to a typical moose survey. Staff also stratified survey areas for the southern ones that were off the shield. In retrospect minimum counts were obtained rather than total local population estimates, and no attempts were made to define confidence limits. (pers comm. T.Trottier) |
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25 | SK Davy-Athabasca | 2006 | N/A | 310 | Estimate based on habitat based on a density estimate of 0.031 (Al Arsenault pers. Comm.) |
Unknown |
26 | SK Clearwater | 2006 | N/A | 425 | Estimate based on habitat based on density estimate of 0.036 (average of density estimates from two adjacent WCMUs) |
Unknown |
27 | SK Highrock-Key | 2006 | Incomplete | 1060 | Estimate based on habitat surveys of portions of range based on density estimate of 0.041 (average of two surveys) |
Unknown |
28 | SK Steephill-Foster | 2006 | Incomplete | 1075 | Estimate based on habitat and aerial surveys of portions of range and aerial survey in late 1980s based on density estimate of 0.033 |
Unknown |
29 | SK Primrose-Cold Lake | 2006 | Incomplete | 350 | Estimate based on habitat and aerial surveys in early 1990s, and data collected by Alberta based on density estimate of 0.047(average of two surveys) |
Unknown |
30 | SK Smoothstone- Wapawekka |
2006 | Incomplete | 700 | Estimate based on habitat and previous aerial surveys of portions of range in early 1990s, and documented range recession based on density estimate of 0.027 (average of three surveys) |
Declining with habitat change based on professional judgement |
31 | SK Suggi-Amisk- Kississing |
2006 | Incomplete | 430 | Estimate based on habitat and previous aerial surveys of portions of range in late 1980s based on density estimate of 0. 055 (average of two surveys) |
Unknown |
32 | SK Pasquia-Bog | 2006 | Incomplete | 30 | Estimate based on recent genetic work cooperative with Manitoba. Documented range recession. based on density estimate of 0.012 (Al Arsenault pers. Comm.) |
Threat of decline based on professional judgement |
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