Summary: Socio-economic analysis for the Species at Risk Act (SARA) listing decision for Sakinaw Sockeye Salmon

Region: Pacific
Populations: Sakinaw Lake
Scientific name: Oncorhynchus nerka
COSEWIC status: Endangered
SARA status: Under consideration

Context

Sakinaw Lake population of Sockeye salmon was first assessed in October 2002 as Endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC)  in an emergency assessment. The status was subsequently re-examined and confirmed in May 2003. The Governor in Council declined to list Sakinaw sockeye under the Species at Risk Act (SARA) in January 2005, citing "the unacceptably high social and economic costs that the commercial fishing and recreational fishing sectors, some [Indigenous] peoples, coastal communities and others would face if [this population] was [listed]" (Canada Gazette, Part II, 2005). The status of Sakinaw sockeye was once again examined on an emergency basis in April 2006 and confirmed as Endangered. The Governor in Council declined to list Sakinaw sockeye under SARA in May 2007 (Canada Gazette, Part II, 2007). COSEWIC re-assessed Sakinaw sockeye in April 2016 and confirmed Endangered status, initiating the current SARA listing process.

A socio-economic analysis (SEA) has been completed to inform the current SARA listing decision for Sakinaw sockeye. The SEA considers incremental costs and benefits relative to a baseline that accounts for management measures in place, or known to be coming into force, in the absence of the proposed regulation (i.e., without vs. with listing).

Baseline management and economic profiles

The management measures and economic activities that are currently on-going constitute the baseline scenario.

Sockeye salmon fisheries are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO). Sakinaw Sockeye are currently managed as a Stock of Concern within the fisheries management planning process; i.e., per the Southern Salmon Integrated Fisheries Management Plan 2022/23 (DFO, 2022). There are no directed Sakinaw Sockeye fisheries, and additional measures have been implemented to support recovery.

Recreational fishing is closed from November 1 to December 31 for all species in Sakinaw Lake, while other harvest fisheries at the mouth of Sakinaw Creek are prohibited year-round.

A hatchery enhancement program has been in place since 2000.

Management scenarios

List and do not list management scenarios were developed as part of the current listing process.^{Footnote 1} The SEA assesses the economic impacts of proposed and mandatory measures under each scenario relative to the baseline.

Under the list scenario, the general prohibitions of SARA would come into effect. Individuals and their habitat would also continue to be managed and protected under existing legislation (Fisheries Act). Technical and biological feasibility of recovery would be determined during preparation of the recovery strategy, as well as the identification of critical habitat, to the extent possible.

Other management measures would include potential extension of existing recreational fishing closures in Sakinaw Lake, expansion of DNA sampling in fisheries,  increased research, outreach and potential future habitat protections.

Under the do not list (DNL) scenario, individuals and their habitat would continue to be managed and protected under existing legislation (Fisheries Act). Further opportunities for DNA sampling in fisheries and continued maintenance and enhancement of spawning habitats would also be explored.

Costs of list and DNL scenarios

As quantitative information pertaining to the species is unavailable, a qualitative analysis of the potential incremental impacts was conducted.

Under a list scenario, the breakdown of the incremental costs associated with activities included in the management scenarios are as follows:

• known costs associated with known and defined activities
  • Little or no incremental impacts to all existing fisheries participants (commercial, recreational and food, social, and ceremonial (FSC)) as well as fisheries-based assessment programs (e.g., test fisheries) are expected as a result of SARA general prohibitions, as many are either expected to qualify for exemptions or have sufficiently low interaction rates to not warrant additional measures;
  • The cost of research and outreach activities to government is expected to be low^{Footnote 2}, as was estimated in the action plans for other species. Additionally, these costs may be covered by existing DFO and SARA program funding.
• Unknown costs related to activities with uncertain details and potentially varying costs
  • The cost of potential future extension of recreational fishing closures to those fishing in Sakinaw Lake is expected to be low, given existing measures and the low interaction of recreational fishing activity with Sakinaw Sockeye
  • The incremental cost of potential expansion of DNA sampling in commercial and FSC fisheries to government is expected to be low. Such research activities would likely be covered by existing DFO funding where applicable
  • The incremental cost of activities associated with protections of critical habitat to government are anticipated to be negligible given the existing federal regulatory mechanisms in place. The potential recovery activities include the development of timing windows and best management practices (BMPs) for projects near water, the review and formalization of the existing water management plan and habitat restoration. Additionally, since SARA program funding may be used to support additional restoration activities, the incremental cost to government related to spawning habitat restoration is expected to be low

The do not list scenario would closely follow the baseline; as such, the associated incremental costs are expected to be low and may be covered by existing funding sources.

Benefits of list and DNL scenarios

This analysis suggests incremental benefits related to listing Sakinaw Sockeye are conditional on population recovery, increased abundance, or anticipated population growth. If the population were to see some recovery, the types of associated benefits would include potential future increase in harvest availability in fisheries, non-use values associated with Canadians' willingness-to-protect and preserve at-risk salmon populations^{Footnote 3}, and cultural values associated with the species held by various First Nations.

Given that Sakinaw Sockeye recovery is expected to be similar under the list, DNL, and baseline scenarios (because marine survival is the primary factor influencing recovery probabilities), this analysis does not provide a quantitative assessment of incremental benefits of species recovery. Some qualitative positive benefits, however, have been suggested as a result of listing Sakinaw Sockeye as Endangered (i.e., under a list scenario), including increased potential for research, increased awareness of conservation of the species, and access to government funding that is prioritized for listed species.

Summary

The decision of whether or not to list Sakinaw Sockeye as Endangered under SARA would extend certain protections to the species. Under both the list and DNL scenarios, the biological outcomes are expected to be similar to the baseline if future marine survival rates remain very similar to historical rates. Additionally, the incremental costs associated with a list scenario are expected to be low, though some details are unknown. The incremental costs associated with a DNL scenario are also expected to be low. Benefits are expected to be similar under the baseline and the list and DNL scenarios because the probability of recovery is likely to be similar under all scenarios.

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