Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Greenhouse gas emissions projections

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes updated emissions projections annually. In December 2023, the projections were updated and published as part of Canada’s Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections 2023. For the 2023 update, two bottom-up scenarios out to 2035 were developed.

The "Reference Case" scenario includes include federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures that were in place as of August 2023 and assume no further government action. They also include the accounting contribution from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector.

The "Additional Measures Scenario" scenario includes all federal, provincial, and territorial policies and measures from the Reference Case as well as those that have been announced but have not yet been fully implemented. This scenario also includes the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, the impact of Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures, in addition to credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI).

Notes:

• Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures represent avoided conversion and restoration of ecosystems such as wetlands, grasslands, and forest land, as well as the use of best management practices on agricultural land
• the Western Climate Initiative supports greenhouse gas emissions trading programs and permits the purchase of GHG emissions credits from other participating jurisdictions
• impacts of the LULUCF accounting contribution, nature-based climate solutions and agriculture measures are only represented under “Total GHG”
  • these impacts are not available when looking at results by pollutant

Greenhouse gas emissions projections data files (CSV version)^{Footnote 1}

Key results:

• under the Reference Case, GHG emissions are projected to decline to 560 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2030 (23% below 2005 levels), when including the accounting contributions from the LULUCF sector
  
  • in 2035, emissions are projected to decline to 541 Mt CO₂ eq. (26% below 2005 levels)
  • LULUCF accounting contribution has been included in the “Total GHG” series in both historical and projection years for consistency
• under the Additional Measures Scenario, emissions in 2030 are projected to decline to 480 Mt CO₂ eq. (34% below 2005 levels), when including the accounting contributions of LULUCF and credits purchased under the Western Climate Initiative (WCI)
  • In 2035, emissions are projected to decline to 436 Mt CO₂ eq. (40% below 2005 levels)
• preliminary estimates for the GHG impact of Nature-Based Climate Solutions and Agriculture Measures indicate that these programs could reduce the net flux in the LULUCF sector by between 12 and 14 Mt CO₂ eq. per year in the period from 2030 to 2035. A central estimate of 13 Mt CO₂ eq. is used, and is shown separately for clarity. When taking those into account, emissions in the Additional Measures Scenario reach 467 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2030 and 423 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2035

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by pollutant.

Detailed greenhouse gas emissions projections

Canada’s emissions projections are developed and published at the provincial/territorial and economic sector levels. The visualization below shows emissions projections for the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures Scenario” scenarios by area (province or territory) and by economic sector. Navigation to the area and economic sector is accessible by using the buttons located on the top left corner on the visualization below. Filters located on the left side of the visuals allow to select subset of areas and economic sectors.

How to use:

1. Navigation to the area and economic sector is accessible by using the buttons located on the top left corner on the visualization below.
2. Filters located on the left side of the visuals allow to select subset of areas and economic sectors.

Note that the results shown on this page for the Additional Measures Scenario exclude the expected reductions from the Land Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry sector accounting contribution, Nature-Based Climate Solutions, and Agriculture Measures which are expected to reach of 45 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2030.

• Detailed greenhouse gas emissions projections data files (CSV version)^{Footnote 1}  

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by area and economic sector.

Sensitivity analysis

The graphic below shows the Sensitivity Analysis results for six alternative scenarios, focusing on two key uncertainties: the future rate of economic and population growth; and the evolution of world fossil fuel prices. Future economic growth, energy prices, and developments in technologies cannot be foreseen with certainty and typically, these key uncertainties are addressed by examining alternative cases.

When gross domestic product (GDP) and population growth accelerate, Canada’s economy consumes more energy which increases emissions. The opposite is true for the slow gross domestic product and population growth scenario.

Changes to global oil and gas prices have more complex reactions throughout the Canadian economy. When fossil fuel prices increase, sectors such as Heavy Industry and Electricity react to higher oil and natural gas prices by reducing industrial activity, increasing energy efficiency, and reducing natural gas electricity generation. However, Canada's Oil and Gas sector reacts to higher commodity prices by investing and developing existing and new assets, as there is a greater financial incentive to produce and sell fossil fuels.

• Sensitivity analysis data files (CSV version)^{Footnote 1}

Key results:

• in the scenario with slow GDP, slow population growth, and low world oil and gas prices, GHG emissions are projected to be 563 Mt CO₂ eq. by 2030 and 523 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2035
  
  • those estimates are lower than the Reference Case by 29 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2030 and by 51 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2035
• In the scenario with fast GDP, high population growth, and high world oil and gas prices, emissions are projected to be 618 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2030 and 621 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2035
  
  • those estimates are higher than the Reference Case by 26 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2030 and by 47 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2035.
• this represents a range between the high and low scenarios of 55 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2030 and 98 Mt CO₂ eq. in 2035

Long description for Sensitivity analysis.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections by International Panel on Climate Change Sector

To meet its international reporting commitments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Canada is required to prepare a national communication every four years, and a biennial report every two years. Starting in 2024, Biennial Reports will be replaced by Biennial Transparency reports. The reports include projections presented by International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) categories and by Canadian economic sector. Consequently, Canada’s 2023 Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections include projections presented by IPCC categories as well.

Adjustments that are made to the IPCC categories to calculate economic sector emissions are discussed in more details in Canada’s 2023 GHG and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections report.

The graphic below shows Canada’s emissions projections under the “Reference Case” and “Additional Measures” scenarios by IPCC categories. Note that these results do not include the accounting contribution from the LULUCF sector, the impact from nature based climate solutions (NBCS), agriculture measures, and WCI Credits.

• Greenhouse gas emissions projections by IPCC sector data files (CSV version)^{Footnote 1}

Long description for Greenhouse gas emissions projections by International Panel on Climate Change sector.

Air pollutant emissions projections

Air pollutant emissions projections inform both Canada’s domestic and international work related to improving air quality.

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes updated air pollutant emissions projections annually. In December 2023, the projections were published as part of Canada’s 2023 Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections Report and include projections out to 2035. These projections are submitted annually to the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) as part of Canada's reporting obligations under the Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP or Air Convention).

The graphic below tracks the changes in emissions from 2005 levels (except for black carbon, where data starts in 2013) for nine pollutants: ammonia, carbon monoxide, mercury, nitrogen oxides, particulate matter 10, particulate matter 2.5, total particulate matter, sulphur oxides, volatile organic compounds, and black carbon.

• Air pollutant emissions projections data files (CSV version)^{Footnote 1}  

Key results:

• since 2005, there has been a consistent decrease in emissions of carbon monoxide, mercury, nitrogen oxides, sulphur oxides, and volatile organic compounds
  • projections from both the Reference and Additional Measures Cases indicate that these air pollutants will continue to stay well below the 2005 levels by 2035
• emissions of both particulate matter 10 and particulate matter 2.5 have risen since 2005, and this trend is projected to continue in both the Reference and Additional Measures Cases
  
  • note that these projections include open-source emissions (see more details below).
• ammonia emissions have surpassed 2005 levels in 2021 and are projected to increase continuously throughout the forecast period
  
  • this trend is driven by expected growths in agricultural activities
• black carbon emissions have steadily decreased since 2013 and are projected to decline continuously in both the Reference and Additional Measures Cases

Long description for Air pollutant emissions projections.

Additional details and graphics presenting emissions projections by economic sector for each pollutant are available below.

Land use, land-use change and forestry

Environment and Climate Change Canada publishes Land Use, Land-use Change and Forestry net GHG flux and accounting contributions projections annually. In December 2023, the projections were updated and published as part of Canada’s 2023 Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollutant Emissions Projections and include projections out to 2035. The Land use, land-use change and forestry sector is made up of six land categories: forests, cropland, grassland, wetlands, settlements, other land, as well as a seventh category for harvested wood products derived from those lands.

• Historical LULUCF accounting contribution data files (CSV version)^{Footnote 1}
• Projected LULUCF accounting contribution data files (CSV version)^{Footnote 1}

Key results:

• the accounting contribution from the Land use, land-use change and forestry sector is projected to be a credit of 32 megatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO­₂ eq.) in both 2030 and 2035
• the accounting contribution from the Land use, land-use change and forestry sector is dominated by the Forest Land remaining Forest Land category and associated harvested wood products, which is projected to be an accounting credit of 42 Mt CO­₂ eq. in both 2030 and 2035
• reductions from nature-based solutions and agricultural measures are expected to be 12 to 14 Mt CO­₂ eq. in both 2030 and 2035 (with the projections using a central estimate of 13 Mt CO₂ eq.) but are not included in the chart below

Note: historical and projected accounting contributions are not comparable as the projected accounting contribution includes only elements for which net GHG flux projections are available.

Long description for Land use, land-use change and forestry.