Oil and gas greenhouse gas pollution cap – Backgrounder to CGI Regulations

The oil and gas sector is experiencing record profits within Canada

November 4, 2024

Context

The proposed oil and gas greenhouse gas (GHG) pollution cap will incentivize the sector to invest in technically achievable decarbonization to attain significant emission reductions by 2030-2032. The policy will put the sector on a pathway to carbon neutrality by 2050, while enabling it to continue to respond to global demand.

Oil and gas companies in Canada have proven repeatedly that they can innovate and develop new technologies to produce more competitive oil and gas with less pollution.

While it continues to be a major supplier to global markets, Canada’s oil and gas sector has the opportunity to reinvest in its own competitiveness ahead of the anticipated future decline in global demand for oil and gas in a low-carbon future. Reinvesting in cleaner oil and gas production ensures that the sector contributes its fair share to GHG reductions in Canada and positions Canada for a stronger future for its workers and economy.

The oil and gas sector is experiencing record profits within Canada. Coming out of the pandemic, operating profits in the oil and gas sector increased tenfold from $6.6 billion in 2019 to $66.6 billion in 2022. Despite that, there has been limited and declining overall investment in the sector in Canada over the last several years.

The proposed Regulations would establish a cap-and-trade system that is designed to recognize producers with better emission performance and motivate higher-polluting facilities to reinvest record profits into more pollution-reducing projects.

The oil and gas sector is a major contributor to Canada’s economy. In 2023, the sector generated $209 billion in gross domestic product (GDP) (PDF) and accounted for 25% of Canada’s exports (valued at $177 billion). It is also a major employer across the country, directly employing 181,800 people in 2023.

The oil and gas sector is also Canada’s largest source of GHG pollution, responsible for 31% of Canada’s GHG emissions in 2022. Decreasing emissions in the oil and gas sector by introducing a cap on GHG pollution is necessary to ensure that the sector contributes its fair share to Canada’s ongoing efforts to tackle climate change and reach our GHG emission reduction targets and international commitments under the Paris Agreement.

Strengthening emission performance and carbon management technologies in Canada’s oil and gas sector

Canada’s oil and gas sector has the potential to be a supplier of choice as the demand for oil and gas for combustion declines in a low-carbon future. This would enable the sector to continue to be a major employer and source of economic activity across Canada, particularly in oil- and gas-producing regions.

The proposed Regulations put a limit on pollution, not production. The proposed Regulations are carefully designed around what is technically achievable within the sector, while enabling continued production growth in response to global demand. In fact, modelling shows that Canadian oil and gas production is projected to increase 16% between 2019 and the 2030-2032 period with the proposed Regulations in place.

Major emissions-reduction opportunities are available, and oil and gas producers are already investing in them. Methane is a particularly potent greenhouse gas, and most methane emissions represent a wasted resource because they are from leaks and other unintended sources. Preventing methane emissions is one of the lowest-cost ways to reduce GHG emissions, and the sector’s efforts have resulted in a steady decline in these emissions. New regulations to be finalized later this fall will ensure that the sector continues to cut methane emissions by at least 75% from 2012 levels by 2030. 

Carbon capture is also going to play an increasingly important role in reducing emissions from oil and gas production, and Canada is well placed to cement its position as a global leader in this critical technology. According to both the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA), there is no credible path to carbon neutrality without carbon management technologies, such as carbon capture and storage, and their deployment must be rapid and immense, scaling up by nearly 200 times by 2050.

The shift toward a low-carbon economy has created a rush of capital toward carbon management technologies worldwide. In the United States, there are many new carbon capture projects being deployed, with 150 currently under review at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Canada has already established itself as a first mover and leader in the global carbon management sector, with some of the world’s first large-scale projects; favourable geology; cutting-edge innovators and start-ups; early investments in research, development, and demonstration; deep technical expertise; a robust policy and regulatory environment at the federal and provincial levels; and active international collaboration. The Government of Canada has launched a suite of policies with a mix of financial supports and regulatory measures to better position Canada’s economy for success.

Approximately one-sixth of the world’s active large-scale carbon management projects, which use a range of approaches to capture carbon dioxide from point sources or directly from the atmosphere to be reused or durably stored, can be found in Canada, with a growing number in the construction, design and development phase across multiple sectors and regions.

The continued development and deployment of carbon management technologies to help achieve Canada’s climate objectives will form the basis of a world-leading, multi-billion-dollar carbon management sector in Canada that supports inclusive, high-value employment, significant export opportunities and a more sustainable economy.

Point-source carbon capture is a leading option for deep emissions reductions from the upstream oil and gas sector. Given the long lifespan of many existing heavy industrial facilities and the value of these industries to the Canadian economy, public-private collaboration is critical to advance strategic, economical, and regionally appropriate decarbonization pathways.

The GHG oil and gas pollution cap adds to a suite of policy measures, which are designed to shift the oil and gas industry increasingly toward cleaner production through the use of carbon management systems and other technologies, including to reduce methane emissions and to switch to cleaner fuels. Those include other successful regulatory measures, such as federal, provincial, and territorial carbon pricing systems for industry, including Alberta’s TIER system, the federal Output-Based Pricing System, federal and provincial methane regulations, and the Clean Fuel Regulations.

They also include a wide range of financial supports to support deployment and help develop the innovation ecosystem for carbon reduction technologies in Canada, including:

• $319 million over 7 years for RD&D to advance the commercial viability of emerging carbon management technologies.
• Refundable CCUS Investment Tax Credit (ITC), expected to provide $12.5 billion between 2022-2023 and 2034-2035, for eligible projects that enable permanent CO2 storage.
• The Canada Growth Fund, totalling $15 billion, offers investment tools such as contracts for differences designed to address risk and accelerate private sector investment to grow Canada’s clean economy, including in the carbon management sector.
• Strategic Innovation Fund, with $8 billion in funding to help companies reduce emissions and grow their business sustainably.
• The Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB) invests in CCUS infrastructure projects, including through its Project Acceleration funding for front-end engineering and design (FEED) capital expenditures.

Increasingly, large-scale carbon capture projects are being built in both the oil and gas sector and other sectors. Recent projects include:

• Strathcona Resources, an oilsands company with assets in Saskatchewan and Alberta and Canada’s fifth-largest oil producer, is launching a $2 billion project to store up to two million tonnes of CO2 per year, while creating hundreds of new jobs. The project has received support from the Canada Growth Fund.
• Entropy, an Alberta-based company, is working on a project that will enable emissions reductions of approximately 2.8 million tonnes over 15 years and support more than 1,200 good jobs for Albertans.
• Shell announced two new projects in Alberta: the Polaris Carbon Capture project and the Atlas Carbon Storage Hub. These projects aim to reduce industrial emissions by transitioning to cleaner technology. The Polaris project will capture approximately 650,000 tonnes of carbon a year while the Atlas project will store the captured carbon from Polaris and potentially other industrial facilities in the future. Once complete in 2028, these projects are expected to generate up to 2,000 jobs for Albertans.
• The North West Redwater (NWR) Sturgeon Refinery, also operating in the Alberta Industrial Heartland, is the world’s first bitumen refinery built with carbon capture. 
• The Alberta Carbon Trunk Line (ACTL), which transports captured carbon from facilities for storage in oil fields, will be used by new carbon capture projects throughout the province to transport captured CO2 to final storage sites.  
• Linde announced an investment of more than $2 billion to build a clean hydrogen facility that will supply Dow’s Path2Zero production complex in Alberta. The facility will capture more than 2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions per year for sequestration.

Extensive consultation to date on the oil and gas GHG pollution cap

The Government of Canada has engaged a broad range of partners and stakeholders on the oil and gas GHG pollution cap, including provinces and territories, Indigenous partners, industry, environmental groups, and Canadians. The government has held webinars, convened meetings, and published discussion papers to seek input and feedback. Since November 2021, the government has received over 250 written submissions from organizations, held over 100 meetings, and hosted seven public webinars.  

The government published a Regulatory Framework to Cap Oil and Gas Sector GHG Emissions in December 2023. This Framework confirmed the government’s intent to implement the oil and gas GHG pollution cap through a new cap-and-trade system, and proposed various regulatory design features, including which subsectors would be covered by the oil and gas GHG pollution cap, the level of the GHG pollution cap, and rules about flexible compliance options.

The proposed Regulations are carefully designed based on what is technically achievable in the sector, setting a limit on pollution, not production. Technically achievable emissions reductions were estimated based on an assessment of the abatement technologies that could feasibly be deployed within the upstream and LNG activities in the oil and gas sector by 2030-2032, considering the status of available technologies, projected levels of production, the availability of equipment and labour, and timelines for permitting and approvals.

Estimates of technically achievable reductions included reductions related to compliance with the strengthened methane regulations, installation of carbon capture and storage technology, and electrification. The risk that not all technically achievable reductions would be implemented in time for the first compliance period was also taken into consideration.

The government has now published proposed Regulations to implement the oil and gas GHG pollution cap, and invites input from November 9, 2024, to January 8, 2025. The government will continue to engage with partners and stakeholders in the development of final regulations.

Key components of the proposed national cap-and-trade system for oil and gas greenhouse gas pollution

The proposed Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations (proposed Regulations) would establish a national cap-and-trade system that would apply to upstream oil and gas activities including onshore and offshore oil and gas production; oil sands production and upgrading; natural gas production and processing; and the production of LNG.

The proposed Regulations have been developed under the Canadian Environmental Protection Act, 1999 (CEPA). Since 1988, CEPA has been used to address a wide range of environmental issues, including air pollution, chemicals, plastics and GHG emissions.

• The cap-and-trade system will freely allocate emissions allowances to facilities covered by the system. At the end of each year, each facility will need to remit to the government one allowance for each tonne of carbon pollution it has emitted. Over time, the government will give out fewer allowances, corresponding to the declining emissions cap.
• Operators will face an ongoing incentive to reduce their emissions. If an operator does not have enough allowances to cover their emissions, they will be able to buy allowances from other operators that have invested in pollution reduction. Operators can also contribute to a decarbonization program or use GHG offset credits to cover a small portion of their emissions (up to 10% for the decarbonization program and up to 20% for offsets, for a maximum of 20% for both options). The decarbonization program would fund projects that support the reduction of emissions from the sector. The total of all allowances and the overall 20% limit on compliance flexibility creates a legal upper bound on emissions from the sector.
• The oil and gas GHG pollution cap will limit emissions, not production, and will encourage industry to reinvest into projects that lower pollution while providing flexibility to respond to changes in the global market.  
• To make sure the oil and gas GHG pollution cap accounts for current activity levels, the proposed Regulations would use data reported by operators for 2026 to set the first oil and gas GHG pollution cap level. The oil and gas GHG pollution cap for the first compliance period, 2030-2032, would be set at 27% below emissions reported for 2026, which is estimated to be equivalent to 35% below 2019 emissions.
• Using 2026 for reported data means the oil and gas GHG pollution cap would be based on real-world conditions. The final oil and gas GHG pollution cap level would be published before the end of 2027.
• The proposed Regulations allocate allowances to covered operators using specified distribution rates—defined in allowances per unit of production—for each type of covered activity. Allowances will be distributed before the start of each year (starting in 2029 for 2030, the first compliance year). To ensure that allowances are distributed to the level of the emissions cap for each year, the allowances distributed would be pro-rated across all facilities receiving them.

The system would be phased in for the first four years (2026-2029). During that period, operators would be required to register and report their emissions and production. Large emitters will start reporting in 2027 for their 2026 emissions and production levels. Reporting for small operators would start in 2029 for their 2028 levels. Operators would need to submit verified annual reports to Environment and Climate Change Canada for their facilities for every calendar year. Reports would be due on June 1 of the following year. The reports would be used to identify which operators will be subject to the pollution cap and have remittance obligations.

Annual reports would include the GHG emissions attributed to the facility and the production amount by industrial activity. The Quantification Methods for the Oil and Gas Sector Greenhouse Gas Emissions Cap Regulations (the Quantification Methods) would define methods to calculate each source of emissions and would provide certain default values. In addition to the draft regulations, the government is seeking feedback on the Quantification Methods.

All operators would be required to register and report, but only large operators (producing above an annual threshold of 365,000 barrels of oil equivalent) would have to remit allowances to cover their emissions. Large operators account for approximately 99% of the upstream sector’s emissions. The government would distribute emissions allowances to covered operators annually, before the start of each compliance year. Allowances would be pro-rated across all covered operators’ facilities based on historical production volumes. Allowances would not be able to be used for compliance under other carbon pricing systems, such as the federal Output-Based Pricing System (OBPS). There would be no limits to the number of allowances operators covered under the oil and gas GHG pollution cap could hold, and allowances could be traded among operators.

Emissions allowances and offsets could be banked for use in a limited number of future years. Decarbonization units would not be tradable or bankable.

Economic impacts of the proposed Regulations

Environment and Climate Change Canada undertook an economic cost-benefit analysis of the proposed Regulations. Costs and benefits have been evaluated relative to a baseline that assumes production in the oil and gas sector grows, existing federal and provincial GHG measures remain in place, and the sector achieves the 75% reduction in methane emissions relative to 2012 levels, as a result of the forthcoming oil and gas methane regulations.

The proposed pollution cap Regulations are estimated to result in net cumulative GHG emission reductions of 13.4 Mt above the baseline of reductions between 2025 and 2030-2032 that will be achieved by existing measures. That incremental reduction is valued at almost $4 billion in avoided global climate change damages. When compared to the costs, modelling showed that the proposed Regulations are estimated to have net benefits of $428 million for Canada.

Importantly, this multi-million-dollar benefit does not account for a wide range of additional benefits likely to be associated with the proposed Regulations, including:

• the additional economic activity and jobs associated with post-2032 investments in carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) and other major decarbonization activities;
• the stimulation of innovation and new low-carbon industries, such as clean hydrogen;
• the economic and health benefits of reducing air pollution, which will improve the quality of life for many people and reduce the strain on our healthcare systems; and
• the longer-term competitiveness benefits of a decarbonized Canadian oil and gas sector in a world that continues to take action to fight climate change and adhere to existing international and domestic climate commitments.

The oil and gas sector directly and indirectly supports a significant workforce, especially in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Newfoundland and Labrador. Modelling for the 2019 to 2030-2032 period shows that labour expenditure in the sectors covered by the proposed Regulations is expected to grow by 53%, which is only slightly below the 55 % growth in the baseline scenario.

Additionally, jobs in clean energy will continue to grow. A 2023 Clean Energy Canada report found that Canada will see 700,000 more energy jobs in a carbon-neutral 2050 scenario than we have today. 419,000 of these jobs will be in Alberta, representing three jobs for every individual worker employed in Alberta’s upstream energy sector as of 2022.

Oil and gas prices correspond to global market demand, and they do not typically reflect the cost of production. As such, the risk of compliance costs passed through from the oil and gas sector to Canadians is very low, and the proposed Regulations are not expected to affect the cost of everyday items such as fuel or groceries.

Provincial leadership

British Columbia previously announced it will put in place an oil and gas emissions cap to serve as a backstop to the federal policy. The goal will be to meet BC’s greenhouse gas emission reduction targets and avoid regulatory duplication and administrative burden for the oil and gas sector.

Alberta, in its Emissions Reduction and Energy Development Plan (2023), communicated its goal to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and signalled it would explore options to achieve a 75-80% reduction in methane emissions from conventional oil and gas by 2030. Alberta has had a price on carbon emissions since 2007, making it the first jurisdiction in North America to price carbon. The province’s industrial carbon pricing system, implemented as set out in the Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) Regulation, recycles its proceeds to invest in emissions reduction projects including in the oil and gas sector, such as methane emissions abatement.

Saskatchewan is a leader in carbon capture and sequestration technology, with several projects aimed at capturing CO2 emissions from oil and gas production. In 2014, the Boundary Dam project became the first power station in the world to successfully use carbon capture and storage technology. The province is also addressing methane emissions, including improving leak detection and repair practices and implementing best practices for gas flaring and venting.

Newfoundland and Labrador’s offshore oil sector is already one of the lowest-emitting in the country. The newest planned production project—Bay du Nord—was approved with the historic requirement for the project to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Like all other oil- and gas-producing provinces, NL implements a price on industrial carbon emissions via its provincial output-based pricing system.

Note on third party reports

The Government of Canada is aware of third-party reports conducted by Conference Board of Canada, Deloitte and S&P.

These reports are based on a broad range of assumptions including elements of the previously published Regulatory Framework or, in some cases, other assumptions made by the authors. A common assumption found in the reports was that the oil and gas sector would take limited to no additional action to reduce emissions without the regulations.

These reports do not reflect an accurate analysis of the current draft regulations. The Government of Canada welcomes continued sharing of analysis to help refine the proposed Regulations.