Archived - The Fiscal Monitor - November 2020

Highlights

November 2020

There was a budgetary deficit of $15.4 billion in November 2020, compared to a deficit of $2.7 billion in November 2019. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $14.1 billion, compared to a deficit of $1.8 billion in November 2019. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses is a new measure introduced to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans.

The government's 2020–21 financial results reflect the economic downturn and temporary measures implemented through the government's Economic Response Plan to support Canadians and businesses facing hardship as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Compared to November 2019:

• Revenues decreased by $0.9 billion, or 3.6 per cent, driven by a decrease in other revenues that more than offset higher tax revenues.
• Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were up $11.5 billion, or 43.5 per cent, driven by increased transfers to individuals and businesses as part of the government's COVID-19 response measures. 
• Public debt charges were down $0.1 billion, or 4.9 per cent.
• Net actuarial losses were up $0.4 billion, or 43.0 per cent, reflecting changes in the actuarial valuations for pensions and benefits, which have increased in large part due to declines in year-end interest rates used in valuing these obligations, as well as increased costs associated with the utilization of disability and other future benefits provided to veterans.

April to November 2020

For the April to November period of the 2020–21 fiscal year, the government posted a budgetary deficit of $232.0 billion, compared to a deficit of $11.8 billion reported for the same period of 2019–20. The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $221.8 billion, compared to a deficit of $4.6 billion for the same period of 2019–20. 

The unprecedented shift in the government's financial results reflects the severe deterioration in the economic situation and temporary measures implemented through the government's Economic Response Plan to support Canadians and businesses facing hardship as a result of the COVID-19 outbreak during this period.

Compared to fiscal year 2019–20:

• Revenues were down $37.6 billion, or 17.4 per cent, reflecting a broad-based reduction in revenues, including lower tax revenues and other revenues.
• Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were up $182.5 billion, or 89.5 per cent, largely reflecting transfers to individuals, businesses, and other levels of government under the Economic Response Plan, including the Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and Canada Recovery Benefits, the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy (CEWS), the 25 per cent incentive for the Canada Emergency Business Account (CEBA), and transfers under the Safe Restart Agreement.
• Public debt charges decreased by $2.9 billion, or 17.5 per cent, largely reflecting lower Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds, lower interest on the government's pension and benefit obligations, and lower interest on treasury bills. 
• Net actuarial losses were up $3.1 billion, or 43.1 per cent, reflecting increases in the value of the government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits based on actuarial valuations prepared for the Public Accounts of Canada 2020. The increase in net actuarial losses is due in large part to declines in year-end interest rates used in valuing these obligations, as well as increased costs associated with the utilization of disability and other future benefits provided to veterans.

Revenues

Revenues in 2020–21 have been affected by the economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis and by measures introduced under the government's Economic Response Plan, such as tax deferrals and the one-time Goods and Services Tax/Harmonized Sales Tax (GST/HST) credit payment. However, due to challenges in isolating these impacts from underlying economic activity, it is not possible to provide an accurate measure of the impact of COVID-19 on federal revenues.

Revenues in November 2020 totalled $25.2 billion, down $0.9 billion, or 3.6 per cent, from November 2019.

• Tax revenues increased by $0.9 billion, or 3.9 per cent, driven by an increase in GST revenue (reflecting both an increase in retail sales, as well as timing of revenue accruals).
• Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues were up $33 million, or 3.2 per cent. 
• Assessed fuel charge proceeds under the federal carbon pollution pricing system were up $0.1 billion, or 51.3 per cent.
• Other revenues, consisting of enterprise Crown corporations' net profits, sales of goods and services, returns on investments and net foreign exchange revenues, were down $1.9 billion, or 79.4 per cent. This decrease largely reflects lower profits from enterprise Crown corporations, particularly the Bank of Canada. The decrease in Bank of Canada profits is attributable to the Bank's secondary market purchases of Government of Canada securities to support liquidity in financial markets. Under the public sector accounting standards, premiums paid on these bond purchases are expensed immediately, which more than offsets interest earned on the securities during the month.

For the April to November period of 2020–21, revenues were $178.1 billion, down $37.6 billion, or 17.4 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

• Tax revenues decreased by $16.9 billion, or 9.3 per cent, driven largely by declines in GST and corporate income tax revenues, reflecting COVID-19 impacts and related measures such as the one-time additional GST/HST credit payment. For its part, the federal portion of assessed cannabis excise duties increased by $31 million to $58 million over the April to November period.
• EI premium revenues were down $0.3 billion, or 2.3 per cent. 
• Assessed fuel charge proceeds were up $1.5 billion, or 170.6 per cent.
• Other revenues were down $21.9 billion, or 112.9 per cent, largely reflecting the up-front expensing of premiums paid by the Bank of Canada on its secondary market purchases of Government of Canada securities, as well as lower profits from other enterprise Crown corporations and lower revenues from interest and penalties.

Expenses

Program expenses in 2020–21 have been significantly impacted by spending measures under the Economic Response Plan, including the CERB, the CEWS, the Safe Restart Agreement, the 25 per cent incentive under the CEBA, the Canada Recovery Benefits, the Canada Emergency Student Benefit (CESB), and the Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance (CECRA) program. Further information regarding these measures is provided below.

Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses in November 2020 were $37.8 billion, up $11.5 billion, or 43.5 per cent, from November 2019.   

• Major transfers to persons, consisting of elderly benefits, EI benefits, the CERB and Canada Recovery Benefits, and children's benefits, were up $5.4 billion or 62.6 per cent. 
  • Elderly benefits increased by $0.2 billion, or 3.5 per cent.
  • EI benefits increased by $2.2 billion, or 118.1 per cent, reflecting higher unemployment from the crisis and temporary changes to the EI program to improve access. EI benefits included $10 million in CERB benefits to individuals eligible for EI. 
  • Canada Recovery Benefits and CERB payments to those individuals not eligible for EI totalled $3.0 billion. Canada Recovery Benefits include the Canada Recovery Benefit, the Canada Recovery Sickness Benefit, and the Canada Recovery Caregiving Benefit, which are income support programs introduced under Canada's COVID-19 Economic Response Plan.
  • Children's benefits were up $0.1 billion, or 3.5 per cent.
• Major transfers to other levels of government were down $0.2 billion, or 2.3 per cent, largely due to a timing difference in Gas Tax Fund payments, as payments for 2020–21 were made earlier this fiscal year. This timing difference more than offset legislated growth in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer, Equalization transfers and transfers to the territories, and an increase in funding for home care and mental health.
• Direct program expenses were up $6.2 billion, or 58.4 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
• Fuel charge proceeds returned increased by $37 million, or 528.6 per cent, largely reflecting the maturity of the program and an increase in the rate of the Climate Action Incentive payments for tax year 2019.
• The CEWS reflects $4.7 billion in payments to eligible employers under Canada's COVID-19 Economic Response Plan.
• Other transfer payments increased by $0.8 billion, or 22.8 per cent, largely reflecting a number of COVID-19 response measures, such as transfers made under the Rapid Housing Initiative, the 25 per cent incentive under the CEBA, and increased funding for the Reaching Home program.   
• Operating expenses of the government's departments, agencies and consolidated Crown corporations and other entities increased by $0.7 billion, or 9.5 per cent, largely reflecting purchases of medical and personal protective equipment in response to the COVID-19 crisis and increased current service costs for pensions and other employee future benefits based on updated actuarial valuations.

Public debt charges decreased by $0.1 billion, or 4.9 per cent, as lower interest on government debt more than offset higher Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds.

Net actuarial losses, which represent the amortization of changes in the value of the government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits accrued in previous fiscal years, increased by $0.4 billion, or 43.0 per cent, in large part due to declines in year-end interest rates used in valuing these obligations, as well as increased costs associated with the utilization of disability and other future benefits provided to veterans.

For the April to November period of 2020–21, program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were $386.4 billion, up $182.5 billion, or 89.5 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

• Major transfers to persons, consisting of elderly benefits, EI benefits, the CERB and Canada Recovery Benefits, and children's benefits, were up $80.5 billion or 123.2 per cent. 
  • Elderly benefits increased by $1.9 billion, or 5.2 per cent, reflecting growth in the number of recipients.
  • EI benefits increased by $31.4 billion, or 261.5 per cent, due to higher unemployment resulting from the crisis and temporary changes to the EI program to improve access. EI benefits included $27.6 billion in CERB benefits paid to individuals eligible for EI.   
  • Canada Recovery Benefits and CERB payments to individuals not eligible for EI totalled $44.8 billion. 
  • Children's benefits were up $2.3 billion, or 14.0 per cent, largely reflecting the one-time increase to the May 2020 Canada Child Benefit payment.
• Major transfers to other levels of government were up $17.3 billion, or 32.2 per cent, largely reflecting transfers under the Safe Restart Agreement and the Essential Workers Wage Top-Up; legislated growth in 2020–21 in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer, Equalization transfers and transfers to the territories; transfers through the Safe Return to Class Fund; and, funding to clean up orphan and inactive oil and gas wells. These increases were offset in part by a $1.9-billion expense recorded in April 2019 resulting from the Hibernia Dividend Backed Annuity Agreement between Canada and Newfoundland and Labrador, which did not recur in 2020–21.
• Direct program expenses were up $84.7 billion, or 99.9 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
  • Fuel charge proceeds returned increased by $1.5 billion, or 116.5 per cent, largely reflecting the continued administration of Climate Action Incentive payments, at an increased rate, for the 2019 tax year.
  • The CEWS accounted for $54.7 billion in payments to eligible employers.
  • Other transfer payments increased by $24.9 billion, or 92.2 per cent, largely reflecting a number of COVID-19 response measures, including the 25 per cent incentive under the CEBA, transfers to students under the CESB, support for seniors to cover increased costs as a result of COVID-19, and payments under the CECRA. 
  • Operating expenses of the government's departments, agencies and consolidated Crown corporations and other entities increased by $3.6 billion, or 6.4 per cent, reflecting in large part purchases of medical and personal protective equipment in response to the COVID-19 crisis and increased current service costs for pensions and other employee future benefits based on updated actuarial valuations.

Public debt charges decreased by $2.9 billion, or 17.5 per cent, primarily reflecting lower Consumer Price Index adjustments on Real Return Bonds, lower interest on pension and benefit obligations, and lower interest on Government of Canada treasury bills. 

Net actuarial losses increased by $3.1 billion, or 43.1 per cent, reflecting increases in the measurement of the government's obligations for pensions and other employee future benefits accrued in previous fiscal years. The increase in net actuarial losses is due in large part to declines in year-end interest rates used in valuing these obligations and increased costs associated with the utilization of disability and other future benefits provided to veterans.

The following table presents total expenses by main object of expense.

Financial requirement of $274.3 billion for April to November 2020

The budgetary balance is presented on an accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid. In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by changes in the budgetary balance but also by the cash source/requirement resulting from the government's investing activities through its acquisition of capital assets and its loans, financial investments and advances, as well as from other activities, including payment of accounts payable and collection of accounts receivable, foreign exchange activities, and the amortization of its tangible capital assets. The difference between the budgetary balance and financial source/requirement is recorded in non-budgetary transactions.

With a budgetary deficit of $232.0 billion and a requirement of $42.3 billion from non-budgetary transactions, there was a financial requirement of $274.3 billion for the April to November 2020 period, compared to a financial requirement of $17.6 billion for the same period of the previous year. 

The increased financial requirement for non-budgetary transactions for the April to November 2020 period was mainly driven by changes in loans, investments and advances; and accounts payable, accrued liabilities and accounts receivable. Changes to loans, investments and advances largely reflect loans advanced under the CEBA program, while changes to accounts payable, accrued liabilities and accounts receivable reflect a number of factors, including year-over-year changes in the balances of taxes receivable and amounts payable related to tax.