Archived - The Fiscal Monitor A publication of the Department of Finance: 2017-10

October 2017: budgetary deficit of $0.3 billion

There was a budgetary deficit of $0.3 billion in October 2017, compared to a deficit of $1.5 billion in October 2016. Revenues increased by $1.0 billion, or 4.0 per cent, largely reflecting an increase in tax revenues. Program expenses decreased by $0.2 billion, or 0.9 per cent, as an increase in major transfers to persons was more than offset by decreases in major transfers to other levels of government and direct program expenses. Public debt charges increased by $39 million, or 2.0 per cent.

April to October 2017: budgetary deficit of $6.3 billion

For the April to October 2017 period of the 2017–18 fiscal year, the Government posted a budgetary deficit of $6.3 billion, compared to a deficit of $9.3 billion reported in the same period of 2016–17. Revenues were up $7.9 billion, or 4.8 per cent, as an increase in tax revenues was partially offset by decreases in Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues and other revenues. Program expenses were up $5.4 billion, or 3.4 per cent, reflecting increases in major transfers to persons and other levels of government and direct program expenses. Public debt charges were down $0.6 billion, or 4.1 per cent, largely due to a lower average effective interest rate on the stock of interest-bearing debt.

There was a budgetary deficit of $0.3 billion in October 2017, compared to a deficit of $1.5 billion in October 2016.

Revenues in October 2017 totalled $25.5 billion, up $1.0 billion, or 4.0 per cent, from October 2016.

• Personal income tax revenues were up $40 million, or 0.3 per cent.
• Corporate income tax revenues were up $0.6 billion, or 18.8 per cent.
• Non-resident income tax revenues were up $0.1 billion, or 15.4 per cent.
• Excise taxes and duties were up $0.5 billion, or 10.9 per cent, largely due to a $0.6-billion increase in Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues. Customs import duties and other excise taxes and duties decreased by $37 million and $7 million respectively, while energy taxes increased by $14 million.
• EI premium revenues were down $0.2 billion, or 13.4 per cent, reflecting a decline in the premium rate as a result of the seven-year break-even mechanism introduced in 2017.
• Other revenues, consisting of net profits from enterprise Crown corporations, revenues of consolidated Crown corporations, revenues from sales of goods and services, returns on investments, net foreign exchange revenues and miscellaneous revenues, were down $0.2 billion, or 6.3 per cent.

Program expenses in October 2017 were $23.8 billion, down $0.2 billion, or 0.9 per cent, from October 2016.

• Major transfers to persons, consisting of elderly, EI and children's benefits, increased by $0.2 billion, or 2.4 per cent. Elderly benefits increased by $0.2 billion, or 5.2 per cent, due to growth in the elderly population and changes in consumer prices, to which benefits are fully indexed. EI benefit payments decreased by $49 million, or 3.1 per cent. Children's benefits increased by $22 million, or 1.1 per cent.
• Major transfers to other levels of government consist of federal transfers in support of health and other social programs (primarily the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer and the new home care and mental health transfers announced in Budget 2017), fiscal arrangements and other transfers (Equalization, transfers to the territories, as well as a number of smaller transfer programs), transfers to provinces on behalf of Canada's cities and communities, and the Quebec Abatement. Major transfers to other levels of government decreased by $0.3 billion, or 4.4 per cent, as legislated growth in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer, Equalization transfers and transfers to the territories was more than offset by a decrease in transfers to Canada's cities and communities due to a year-over-year difference in the timing of payments.
• Direct program expenses include transfer payments to individuals and other organizations not included in major transfers to persons and other levels of government, and other direct program expenses, which consist of operating expenses of National Defence, other departments and agencies, and expenses of consolidated Crown corporations. Direct program expenses were down $0.2 billion, or 1.5 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
  • Transfer payments decreased by $0.7 billion, or 19.5 per cent, due to year-over-year differences in the timing of payments and decreases in transfers across several departments, including claims expenses and infrastructure funding.
  • Other direct program expenses increased by $0.6 billion, or 8.2 per cent.

Public debt charges were up $39 million, or 2.0 per cent.

For the April to October 2017 period of the 2017–18 fiscal year, there was a budgetary deficit of $6.3 billion, compared to a deficit of $9.3 billion reported during the same period of 2016–17.

Revenues increased by $7.9 billion, or 4.8 per cent, to $171.8 billion.

• Personal income tax revenues were up $4.2 billion, or 5.4 per cent.
• Corporate income tax revenues were up $1.9 billion, or 8.7 per cent.
• Non-resident income tax revenues were up $0.8 billion, or 23.3 per cent.
• Excise taxes and duties were up $2.8 billion, or 9.2 per cent. GST revenues were up $2.5 billion, or 12.3 per cent. Energy taxes were up $0.1 billion, customs import duties were up $0.2 billion, and other excise taxes and duties were up $16 million.
• EI premium revenues were down $1.6 billion, or 11.8 per cent, reflecting a decline in the premium rate as a result of the seven-year break-even mechanism introduced in 2017.
• Other revenues were down $0.3 billion, or 1.7 per cent.

For the April to October 2017 period, program expenses were $164.2 billion, up $5.4 billion, or 3.4 per cent, from the same period the previous year.

• Major transfers to persons were up $2.5 billion, or 4.8 per cent. Elderly benefits increased by $1.6 billion, or 5.8 per cent, reflecting growth in the elderly population and changes in consumer prices, to which benefits are fully indexed. EI benefit payments decreased by $0.4 billion, or 3.4 per cent. Children's benefits were up $1.3 billion, or 10.5 per cent, reflecting the new Canada Child Benefit, which replaced the Canada Child Tax Benefit and the Universal Child Care Benefit as of July 2016.
• Major transfers to other levels of government were up $0.9 billion, or 2.3 per cent, largely reflecting legislated growth in the Canada Health Transfer, the Canada Social Transfer, Equalization transfers and transfers to the territories, as well as payments under the new home care and mental health transfers.
• Direct program expenses were up $2.0 billion, or 3.0 per cent. Within direct program expenses:
  • Transfer payments decreased by $0.1 billion, or 0.5 per cent.
  • Other direct program expenses increased by $2.1 billion, or 4.5 per cent, reflecting increases in the operating expenses of consolidated Crown corporations and National Defence.

Public debt charges decreased by $0.6 billion, or 4.1 per cent, largely reflecting a lower average effective interest rate on the stock of interest-bearing debt.

The budgetary balance is presented on an accrual basis of accounting, recording government revenues and expenses when they are earned or incurred, regardless of when the cash is received or paid. In contrast, the financial source/requirement measures the difference between cash coming in to the Government and cash going out. This measure is affected not only by changes in the budgetary balance but also by the cash source/requirement resulting from the Government's investing activities through its acquisition of capital assets and its loans, financial investments and advances, as well as from other activities, including payment of accounts payable and collection of accounts receivable, foreign exchange activities, and the amortization of its tangible capital assets. The difference between the budgetary balance and financial source/requirement is recorded in non-budgetary transactions.

With a budgetary deficit of $6.3 billion and a requirement of $7.4 billion from non-budgetary transactions, there was a financial requirement of $13.7 billion for the April to October 2017 period, compared to a financial requirement of $22.3 billion for the same period the previous year.

The Government financed this financial requirement of $13.7 billion and increased cash balances by $5.0 billion by increasing unmatured debt by $18.6 billion. The increase in unmatured debt was achieved primarily through the issuance of marketable bonds.

The level of cash balances varies from month to month based on a number of factors including periodic large debt maturities, which can be quite volatile on a monthly basis. Cash balances at the end of October 2017 stood at $41.9 billion, down $1.4 billion from their level at the end of October 2016.

Note: Unless otherwise noted, changes in financial results are presented on a year-over-year basis.

For inquiries about this publication, contact Bradley Recker at 613-369-5667.

December 2017