Post-pandemic Provisional Federal Residency Forecasts
Research Highlights: Post-pandemic changes in 10-year population forecasts were evidenced for community residency.
Why we are doing this study
The Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) had experienced an unprecedented decline in the federal community supervision (-903 or 9.6%) population during the COVID-19 pandemic era1. Therefore, a pause occurred in the annual forecasting exercise and in 2022 new 10-year community supervision population projections were estimated to fiscal year-end 2031 to 2032.2 With a sharp rise in federal admissions observed in 2022 to 2023 with the reopening of the courts, refreshed provisional forecasts were undertaken to 2032 to 2033.3
Publication
What we did
Weekly snapshots of community residency counts from 1990 to 1991 to year-end 2021 to 2023 was derived from CSC’s Offender Management System. On 29 March 2023, residency was a condition for a total count of 2,637 or 32% of those 8,298 recorded to be on community supervision. More specifically, 1,471 (55.8%) were on Day Parole, 84 (3.2%) were on Full Parole with residency, 813 (30.8%) were on Statutory Release with residency and 269 (10.2%) were on Long Term Supervision with residency. The Community residency projections for day parole, full parole with residency, statutory release with residency and long-term supervision with residency were estimated to 2032 to 2033 for men and women combined. SAS / ETS software was used for analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.
What we found
As tabled below, on 29 March 2023, the actual count on community residency was 2,637 an increase of +81 or 3.2% over the pandemic period from 2,556. For 2032 to 2033, the 10-year forecast for community residency is estimated to be 2,559, a decrease by 2032 to 2033 of -38 or 1.4%. With the exception of the Atlantic region, all others are projected to decline.
Federal Community Residency Forecasts to 2032 to 2033
|
Atl. |
Que. |
Ont. |
Pra. |
Pac. |
Total |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
21 to 22 |
208 |
520 |
788 |
525 |
515 |
2,556 |
22 to 23 |
189 |
596 |
737 |
590 |
525 |
2,637 |
32 to 33 |
202 |
577 |
735 |
573 |
513 |
2,599 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Net |
+13 |
-19 |
-2 |
-17 |
-12 |
-38 |
Change |
6.9% |
3.2% |
0.3% |
2.9% |
2.3% |
1.4% |
Note: Regional and Total forecasts are run separately so numbers will vary.
What it means
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic period there was a significant decline in both the federal institutional and community supervision populations. Then a provisional federal residency forecast was undertaken in 2022 which showed there will be a decline. Notwithstanding the community supervision population is still being projected to decrease over a 10-year horizon3, it appears that by 2032 to 2033 those requiring residency will be fewer but with less of a decrease than had been previously estimated.
For more information
Please e-mail the Research Branch. You can also visit the Research Publications section for a full list of reports and one-page summaries.
Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong
Footnotes:
1 Pandemic Era Impacts on the Federal Supervision Populations: RIB 22-05
2 Pandemic Era Impacts on Provisional Federal Population Forecasts: RIB 22-19
3 Post-pandemic Provisional Federal Population Forecasts: RIB 23-23
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