Pandemic era impacts on provisional federal security level forecasts

Research Highlights: Pandemic era impacts in 10-year population forecasts were shown for men across maximum, medium and minimum security.

Annually, the Correctional Service of Canada (CSC) updates its provisional federal population forecasts using a robust methodology developed decades ago. However, over the course of two recent fiscal years (2020-21 and 2021-22), marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, CSC experienced an unprecedented trend break in the historical time series with a major decline in the federal custody (-1,392 or 10.1%) populations. Consequently, a pause occurred in the forecasting exercise during the pandemic era. Then, in 2022 new 10-year in-custody population projections were estimated to fiscal year-end 2031-32.^{Footnote 1}

A database of weekly snapshots of institutional counts from 1990-91 to year-end 2021-22 was derived from CSC's Offender Management System. Security level projections for maximum-, medium, and minimum-security were estimated only for men as the women security level distributions were deemed too low for forecasting models. SAS/ETS software was used for analyzing univariate time series data and to select the best-fitting model.

As tabled below, for men in-custody on 29 March 2022, the actual count in maximum security was 1,590, a decline of -327 or 17.1% over the pandemic period from 1,917. For 2031-32, the 10-year forecast for men in maximum-security is estimated to be 1,642, an increase of 52 or 3.3% but projected to be 275 or 14.3% below the pre-pandemic population. With the exception of the Quebec and Pacific regions, all others are projected to grow.

In relation to medium-security, at fiscal year-end 2021-22 the actual count was 6,602, a decline of -445 or 6.3% over the pandemic period from 7,047. By year-end 2031-32, the medium is estimated to be 6,585, a slight decrease of 17 or 0.3%. With the exception of the Ontario region, all others are projected to decline.

With respect to minimum-security, at fiscal year-end 2021-22 the actual count was 1,803, a decline of -390 or 17.8% over the pandemic period from 2,193. By year-end 2031-32, the minimum population is estimated to be 2,059, a substantial increase of 256 or 13.3%. All regions are projected to increase but is projected to be 135 or 6.2% below the pre-pandemic population.

During the COVID-19 pandemic period there was a significant decline in the federal men in-custody population. While the men in-custody is projected to increase over a 10-year horizon, it appears that by 2031-32 the maximum- and minimum-security men populations will have grown whereas the medium-security will have plateaued.

You can also visit the Research Publications section for a full list of reports and one-page summaries.

Prepared by: Larry Motiuk and Ben Vuong